Arguments
1986-2025 global average surface temperature categorized by years with a significant La Niña cooling influence (blue), El Niño warming influence (red), neutral conditions (black), and those with a cooling influence from a recent large volcanic eruption (orange triangles). (Data: 
UK electricity supplies by source 2010-2025, terawatt hours (TWh). Net imports are the sum of imports minus exports. Renewables include wind, biomass, solar and hydro. The chart excludes minor sources, such as oil, which makes up less than 2% of the total. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of data from NESO and DESNZ.Climate solutions come in all shapes and sizes, and at Yale Climate Connections, we started off the year with the launch of our climate solutions hub, a page designed to help you easily identify climate actions that fit into your life. It’s a great place to find a climate-related New Year’s resolution if that’s your jam.
To close 2025 out on a high note, check out our favorite solutions stories of the year.
Sara Peach, editor-in-chief:
The solar panels Germans are plugging into their walls, by Yale Climate Connections’ radio team
In Germany, people who want to go solar can simply go to the store, buy a solar panel, and plug it in at home. These plug-in solar systems send power directly into a home through a normal wall outlet.
(Sara says, “This development makes solar panels accessible to renters. When it’s time to move, just unplug the panel and carry it to your new apartment.”)
Bill McKibben says cheap solar could topple Big Oil’s power, by Michael Svoboda
There is one big good thing happening on this planet. And that is the sudden surge in the use of what, for the last 40 years, we’ve called alternative energy, but which has now become the most obvious, straightforward way to make power.
Pearl Marvell, features editor, Yale Climate Connections en español:
He wasn’t planning to step in – until his team informed him that some immigrant enclaves were still waiting on help a month after the storm. They brainstormed a list of what families must need as winter approached: coats, heaters, blankets, generators, food, cash. When they began distributing items, many told the group that theirs was the first to offer them help.
(Pearl says, “I love this article because Yessenia wrote this story so beautifully and focused it primarily on how this community came together to help each other in times of need. I love when we can tell stories that are people-focused and then backed up by science.)
The rest of the world is lapping the U.S. in the EV race, by Dana Nuccitelli
According to an analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation, climate pollution from global road transportation may have peaked in 2025 thanks to accelerating EV deployments around the world.
(Pearl says, “Because at least the rest of the world is going in the right direction.”)
How to steer EVs towards the road of ‘mass adoption’
Posted on 5 January 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Izzy Woolgar, director of external affairs at the Centre for Net Zero; Andy Hackett, senior policy adviser at the Centre for Net Zero; and Laurens Speelman, principal at the Rocky Mountain Institute
Electric vehicles (EVs) now account for more than one-in-four car sales around the world, but the next phase is likely to depend on government action – not just technological change.
That is the conclusion of a new report from the Centre for Net Zero, the Rocky Mountain Institute and the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute.
Our report shows that falling battery costs, expanding supply chains and targeted policy will continue to play important roles in shifting EVs into the mass market.
However, these are incremental changes and EV adoption could stall without efforts to ensure they are affordable to buy, to boost charging infrastructure and to integrate them into power grids.
Moreover, emerging tax and regulatory changes could actively discourage the shift to EVs, despite their benefits for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, air quality and running costs.
This article sets out the key findings of the new report, including a proposed policy framework that could keep the EV transition on track.
A global tipping point
Technology transformations are rarely linear, as small changes in cost, infrastructure or policy can lead to outsized progress – or equally large reversals.
The adoption of new technologies tends to follow a similar pathway, often described by an “S-curve”. This is divided into distinct phases, from early uptake, with rapid growth from very low levels, through to mass adoption and, ultimately, market saturation.
However, technologies that depend on infrastructure display powerful “path-dependency”, meaning decisions and processes made early within the rollout can lock in rapid growth, but equally, stagnation can also become entrenched, too.
EVs are now moving beyond the early-adopter phase and beginning to enter mass diffusion. There are nearly 60m on the road today, according to the International Energy Agency, up from just 1.2m a decade ago.
Technological shifts of this scale can unfold faster than expected. Early in the last century in the US, for example, millions of horses and mules virtually disappeared from roads in under three decades, as shown in the chart below left.
Yet the pace of these shifts is not fixed and depends on the underlying technology, economics, societal norms and the extent of government support for change. Faster or slower pathways for EV adoption are illustrated in the chart below right.
Left: The S-curve from horses to cars. Right: The predicted shift from ICE to EVs. Note that S-curves present technology market shares from fixed saturation levels to show the shape of diffusion, rather than absolute numbers; Cars were both a substitute for, and additional to, horses. Sources: Grubler (1999), Technology and Global Change (left); Rocky Mountain Institute, IEA data (2023) (right).
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #01
Posted on 4 January 2026 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Year 2025 Statistics
As this is the first news roundup of 2026 and we therefore have the complete year 2025 "in the can", we thought that you might enjoy some stats about what we shared during the previous 12 months.
All told, we shared 1470 links from about 270 different outlets, the vast majority of which provided fewer than 10 links and the bulk of shares originated from just 25 different outlets. The Top10 are: The Guardian (190), Skeptical Science (164), Inside Climate News (108), Yale Climate Connections (67), Phys.org (63), Carbon Brief (58), New York Times (54), The Conversation (52), Grist (47), CNN (38), followed by The Climate Brink, The Washington Post, DeSmog, Climate Home News and NPR. Among the shares are also 53 links to Youtube videos from different creators like ClimateAdam, "Just have a think", Dr Gilbz or Potholer54.
When looking at the categories we put most of the shared articles into Climate Change Impacts followed by - not too surprisingly! - Climate Policy and Politics and Climate Science and Research. Here is the full list for the 1470 articles shared:
| Category | Articles |
| Climate Change Impacts | 379 |
| Climate Policy and Politics | 324 |
| Climate Science and Research | 148 |
| Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science | 118 |
| Miscellaneous (Other) | 114 |
| Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation | 93 |
| Climate education and communication | 92 |
| International Climate Conferences and Agreements | 69 |
| Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions | 47 |
| Climate law and justice | 45 |
| Health aspects of climate change | 37 |
| Geoengineering | 4 |
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (9 articles)
- Australia makes list of 2025`s costliest climate events Sydney Morning Herald, Poppy Johnston, Dec 28, 2025.
- Heat, drought and fire: how extreme weather pushed nature to its limits in 2025 National Trust says these are ‘alarm signals we cannot ignore’ as climate breakdown puts pressure on wildlife The Guardian, Steven Morris, Dec 29, 2025.
- 2025 was one of three hottest years on record, scientists say Phys.org, Alexa St. John, Dec 30, 2025.
- Climate change could cost businesses big time The total climate-related financial risks top $6 trillion at 4,000 of the world’s large companies. Yale Climate Connections, YCC Team, Dec 30, 2025.
- An Idaho Bird Research Station Rises From the Ashes of a Wildfire The Valley Fire torched Lucky Peak in the fall of 2024. Bird researchers there are channeling their grief into study of how avians respond to climate-driven blazes. Inside Climate News, William von Herff, Dec 31, 2025.
- Now in its 25th Year, a Historic Effort to Save the Everglades Evolves as the Climate Warms Everglades restoration was designed to replenish the drinking water supply in one of the fast-growing parts of the nation. The same effort may help save South Florida from climate change. Inside Climate News, Amy Green, Jan 01, 2026.
- Hundreds of ski slopes lie abandoned... will nature reclaim the Alps? Dead ski resorts are undeniable evidence of our warming the planet, and another mess to clean up. Irish Examiner, Staff, Jan 01, 2026.
- A once-sparkling Alaskan river has turned a sickly orange color As permafrost melts, metals stored in rocks leach into the water, making it toxic for fish. Yale Climate Connections, YCC Team, Jan 01, 2026.
- Winter blooming of hundreds of plants in UK `visible signal` of climate breakdown New year plant hunt shows rising temperatures are shifting natural cycles of wildflowers such as daisies. World news The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Jan 02, 2026.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #1 2026
Posted on 1 January 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Editorial: Surviving the Anthropocene: the 3 E’s under pressing planetary issues, Sanita Lima et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Scientists, including stratigraphists, all agree that our species has changed planet Earth in unprecedented ways. But contention exists around the actual start date and the diachronicity of the global human impact (Boivin et al., 2024). Indeed, the term “Anthropocene” is not the first attempt to name the consequences of human activities on our planet (Steffen et al., 2011), and several starting dates for the Anthropocene (from the emergence of the human species to the Great Acceleration and nuclear tests) have been eloquently defended (Logan, 2022). Furthermore, given the social and monetary aspects of the Anthropocene, terms like Capitalocene have been proposed as well (Moore, 2016). As highlighted in this Research Topic, López-Corona and Magallanes-Guijón introduce the concept of Technocene and explain why human technology must take a central place in the definition of our current period. Interestingly, the existence of so many terms trying to explain our impact on Earth could already be an indicator that we are, in fact, in a moment at which human interference is changing Earth’s natural history.
Relationships between climate change perceptions and climate adaptation actions: policy support, information seeking, and behaviour, van Valkengoed et al., Climatic Change
People are increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards, including floods, droughts, and vector-borne diseases. A broad repertoire of adaptation actions is needed to adapt to these various hazards. It is therefore important to identify general psychological antecedents that motivate people to engage in many different adaptation actions, in response to different hazards, and in different contexts. We examined if people’s climate change perceptions act as such general antecedents. Questionnaire studies in the Netherlands (n = 3,546) and the UK (n = 803) revealed that the more people perceive climate change as real, human-caused, and having negative consequences, the more likely they are to support adaptation policy and to seek information about local climate impacts and ways to adapt. These relationships were stronger and more consistent when the information and policies were introduced as measures to adapt to risks of climate change specifically. However, the three types of climate change perceptions were inconsistently associated with intentions to implement adaptation behaviours (e.g. installing a green roof). This suggests that climate change perceptions can be an important gateway for adaptation actions, especially policy support and information seeking, but that it may be necessary to address additional barriers in order to fully harness the potential of climate change perceptions to promote widespread adaptation behaviour.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Unequal evidence and impacts, limits to adaptation: Extreme Weather in 2025, Otto et al., World Weather Attribution
Every December we are asked the same question: was it a bad year for extreme weather? And each year, the answer becomes more unequivocal: yes. Fossil fuel emissions continue to rise, driving global temperatures upward and fueling increasingly destructive climate extremes across every continent. Although 2025 was slightly cooler than 2024 globally, it was some of the worst extreme weather events of 2025 that were studied, documenting the severe consequences of a warming climate and revealing, once again, how unprepared people remain. Across the 22 extreme events that are analyzed in depth, heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts and wildfires claimed lives, destroyed communities, and wiped-out crops. Together, these events paint a stark picture of the escalating risks we face in a warming world
Counting the Cost 2025. A year of climate breakdown, Joe Ware and Oliver Pearce, Christian Aid
The authors identify the 10 most expensive and impactful climate disasters of 2025. The year 2025 was marked by a series of devastating climate events, from heatwaves that pushed the limits of human survival, to record-breaking hurricanes that overwhelmed disaster response systems, and catastrophic rainfall and droughts that wreaked havoc on vulnerable communities. The report underscores the escalating cost of climate change, with fossil fuel companies playing a central role in driving the crisis. The cost of climate inaction is equally clear, as communities continue to bear the brunt of a crisis that could have been averted with urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
2025 Climate Survey, The National Institute for Climate and Environmental Policy at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
Levels of concern about the impacts of climate change are high across the public, but readiness to change lifestyles is low, especially when it involves personal sacrifice. The data indicate that religious affiliation explains climate attitudes in Israel more strongly than political affiliation.
44 articles in 22 journals by 242 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Mechanisms of Projected Changes in Thunderstorm Downburst Environments Across the United States, Williams & Fieweger, 10.22541/essoar.175214727.71008323/v1
Observed and Modeled Trends in Downward Surface Shortwave Radiation Over Land: Drivers and Discrepancies, McKinnon & Simpson Simpson, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119493
2025 in review - busy in the boiler room
Posted on 31 December 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Quite a lot has been happening during 2025 but a good chunk of it is hidden away in our "boiler room" as we were working on a complete revamp of our homepage (see the sneak peek section below).
As in previous recaps, this one is divided into several sections:
 |
Direct Air Capture
Posted on 30 December 2025 by Ken Rice
This is a re-post from And Then There's Physics
I thought I’d written about this before, but can’t seem to find a post. Either, my searching ability is poor, or my memory is poor. I mostly wanted to highlight an interesting YouTube video by David Kipping that illustrates why Direct Air Capture (DAC) is thermodynamically challenging. I encourage you to watch the video (which I’ve put at the end of this post) but his basic conclusion is that thermodynamic constraints mean that implementing DAC at the necessary scale would require a significant fraction of all global electricity consumption.
I wanted, however, to work through some of the numbers myself and to do the calculation of how much DAC we would need to use in a slightly different way.
A key point is that given an atmospheric concentration of 400 ppm and a temperature of 300K, it takes a minimum of 19505 J to remove 1 mole of CO2. 1 mole of CO2 is 44g, so 1 tonne of CO2 has 22727 moles. Therefore, removing 1 tonne of CO2 requires a minimum of 4.43 x 108 J.
Typically, however, we emit so much that we tend to think in terms of gigatonnes of CO2 (GtCO2). Removing 1 GtCO2 would require a minimum of 4.43 x 1017 J.
IEA: Declining coal demand in China set to outweigh Trump’s pro-coal policies
Posted on 29 December 2025 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Josh Gabbatiss
China’s coal demand is set to drop by 2027, more than cancelling out the effects of the Trump administration’s coal-friendly policies in the US, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global coal demand is due to grow by 0.5% year-on-year to reach record levels in 2025, according to the latest figures in the IEA’s annual market report.
Yet this will be reversed over the next couple of years, as a faster-than-expected expansion of renewables in key Asian nations and “structural declines” in Europe push coal demand down, the agency says.
While US coal demand is set to continue falling, the decline will be slower than expected last year, due to new federal government efforts to support the fuel.
However, the IEA’s upward revision of an extra 38m tonnes (Mt) of US coal use in 2027 is dwarfed by an even larger 126Mt downward revision in China’s coal use.
‘Unusual trends’
Coal demand will reach 8,845Mt around the world in 2025. This is slightly (44Mt) higher than the IEA had forecast in its 2024 coal market report.
The agency notes some “unusual regional trends” impacting this growth, including a 37Mt year-on-year increase in US coal demand in 2025 to 516Mt. This is 59Mt (17%) higher than the IEA projected in 2024.
A new suite of measures under the Trump administration have supported the short-term use of coal, including the modernisation of existing coal plants and reopening shuttered ones.
EU coal use declined at a slower pace than expected due to lower wind and hydropower output, according to the IEA. Nevertheless, the bloc “continues its structural decline” in coal demand, driven by renewables expansion, carbon pricing and coal phaseout pledges.
India saw an unexpected dip in coal consumption in 2025, linked to a strong monsoon season that increased hydropower output and curbed electricity demand.
In China, which accounts for more than half of the world’s coal use, coal demand remained roughly unchanged between 2024 and 2025, the IEA says.
2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
Posted on 28 December 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Policy and Politics (8 articles)
- Lost Science - She Tracked the Health of Fish That Coastal Communities Depend On Ana Vaz monitored crucial fish stocks in the Southeast and the Gulf of Mexico until she lost her job at NOAA. New York Times, Interview by Austyn Gaffney, Dec 18, 2025.
- Save NCAR Field notes from New Orleans, where I and 20,000 colleagues learned that Trump intends to destroy the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Deep Convection, Adam Sobel, Dec 21, 2025.
- “Destroying Knowledge”: Michael Mann on Trump’s Dismantling of Key Climate Center in Colorado Democracy Now, Amy Goodman, Dec 22, 2025.
- Trump`s shuttering of the National Center for Atmospheric Research is Stalinist | Michael Mann and Bob Ward This is the latest in the relentless purge of climate researchers who refuse to be co-opted by the fossil fuel industry The Guardian, Michael Mann and Bob Ward, Dec 22, 2025.
- Looking Back at a Historic Year of Dismantling Climate Policies The Trump administration has aggressively pulled America away from its global role in climate and environmental research, diplomacy, regulation and investment. New York Times, David Gelles, Dec 23, 2025.
- We analyzed 73,000 articles and found the UK media is divorcing 'climate change' from net zero The Conversation, James Painter, Dec 24, 2025.
- Trump`s anti-climate policies are driving up insurance costs for homeowners, say experts Tariffs, extreme weather events and the president’s funding cuts are contributing to increasing rates, sometimes by double digits. Yale Climate Connections, Marcus Baram, Capital & Main, Dec 24, 2025.
- White House pushes to dismantle leading climate and weather research center PBS News Hour, William Brangham, Dec 26, 2025.
Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)
- Arctic Warming Is Turning Alaska’s Rivers Red With Toxic Runoff A yearly checkup on the region documents a warmer, rainier Arctic and 200 Alaskan rivers “rusting” as melting tundra leaches minerals from the soil into waterways. New York Times, Eric Niiler, Dec 16, 2025.
- Washington State Faces Climate Change Reality After Storms Two weeks of “atmospheric river” deluges took a toll on business in Leavenworth, Wash., and beyond, reminding the region that a warming planet has brought new uncertainty. New York Times, Anna Griffin and Amy Graff, Dec 22, 2025.
- Report: Climate is central to truth and reconciliation for the Sámi in Finland As Finland reckons with its historic mistreatment of the Indigenous Sámi people, climate change complicates the path forward. Grist, Rebecca Egan McCarthy, Dec 23, 2025.
- Oceans are supercharging hurricanes past Category 5 Warming oceans are fueling a surge of extreme, off-the-charts storms—so powerful that scientists say it’s time to invent a whole new hurricane category. Science Direct, AGU, Dec 25, 2025.
- The Guardian view on adapting to the climate crisis: it demands political honesty about extreme weather | Editorial Over the holiday period, the Guardian leader column is looking ahead at the themes of 2026. Today we look at how the struggle to adapt to a dangerously warming world has become a test of global justice The Guardian, Editorial, Dec 26, 2025.
- Six photos show how climate change shaped our world in 2025 This year’s most notable wildfires, hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, and heavy rains were made more devastating and deadly by climate change. Yale Climate Connections, Samantha Harrington, Dec 26, 2025.
- Cyclones, floods and wildfires among 2025`s costliest climate-related disasters Christian Aid annual report’s top 10 disasters amounted to more than $120bn in insured losses The Guardian, Fiona Harvey, Dec 27, 2025.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #52 2025
Posted on 25 December 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Satellite altimetry reveals intensifying global river water level variability, Fang et al., Nature Communications
River water levels (RWLs) are fundamental to hydrology, water resource management, and disaster mitigation, yet the majority of the world’s rivers remain ungauged. Here, using 46,993 virtual stations from Sentinel-3A/B altimetry (2016?2024), we present a global assessment of RWL variability. We find a median global fluctuation of 3.76 m, with pronounced spatial patterns: significant RWL declines across Central North/South America and Western Siberia, and increases across Africa, Oceania, Eastern/Southern Asia, and Northwestern/Central Europe. Seasonality is intensifying in 68% of basins, as high RWLs become more temporally concentrated. Maximum RWLs are declining by 0.88 cm/yr, while minimum RWLs are rising by 1.43 cm/yr. This convergence is reducing seasonal amplitude globally, with the most pronounced changes in the Americas and Central Africa. These shifts coincide with a recent surge in extreme RWL events, particularly after 2021, signaling growing hydrological instability amid concurrent droughts and floods. Our findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management in response to accelerating climate pressures.
Gazing into the flames: A guide to assessing the impacts of climate change on landscape fire, Clarke et al., Science Advances
Widespread impacts of landscape fire on ecosystems, societies, and the climate system itself have heightened the need to understand the potential future trajectory of fire under continued climate change. However, the complexity of fire makes climate change impact assessment challenging. The climate system influences fire in many ways, including through vegetation, fuel dryness, fire weather, and ignition. Furthermore, fire’s impacts are highly diverse, spanning threats to human and ecological values and beneficial ecosystem and cultural services. Here, we discuss the art and science of projecting climate change impacts on landscape fire. This not only includes how fire, its drivers, and its impacts are modeled, but critically it also includes how projections of the climate system are developed. By raising and discussing these issues, we aim to foster the development of more robust and useful fire projections, help interpret existing assessments, and support society in charting a course toward a sustainable fire future.
Observed positive feedback between surface ablation and crevasse formation drives glacier acceleration and potential surge, Nanni et al., Nature Communications
Sudden glacier acceleration and instability, e.g. surges, strongly influence glacier ice loss. However, lack of in-situ observations of the involved processes hampers our ability to understand, quantify and model such a role. We present an analysis of the initiation of a surge (Kongsvegen glacier, Svalbard), focusing on the interplay between climatic and glacier-specific drivers. We integrate two decades of in-situ observations (GNSS, borehole and surface seismometers) with runoff simulations, and remotely sensed surface-elevation changes. We show that initial glacier thinning led to localized acceleration and crevassing. Then, we show that stronger surface melt enabled meltwater to reach the glacier bed. This input promotes high basal water pressure and glacier sliding, and in turn further surface crevassing. Our observations suggest that this positive feedback leads to the expansion of the initially localized instability. Our findings highlight mechanisms that could trigger glacier instabilities under a warming atmosphere beyond the High Arctic.
Clinging to power: status threat and attitudes toward the renewable energy transition, Finnegan et al., Environmental Politics
Status threat, defined as the perception that one’s group status, influence, and position in the hierarchy are threatened, has been shown to impact public attitudes across a variety of issue areas. However, the role that status threat plays in forming attitudes on the renewable energy transition is unknown. Using an original survey experiment in the United States, we examine how status threat shapes attitudes toward the renewable energy transition. Our results suggest that status threat, particularly economic status threat, decreases support for renewable energy policies. Since attitudes toward the transition from a fossil fuel-based economy to one dominated by renewable energy remain mixed, our findings suggest that status threat may be directly hindering the renewable energy transition, which is central to efforts to combat climate change.
Who do we trust on climate change, and why?, Sheriffdeen et al., Climate and Development
Trust in climate communicators is a critical determinant of whether the public accepts and acts upon climate change information. Yet most research to date has focused on who is trusted, with less attention to why certain messengers are deemed trustworthy. Using survey data from 6479 participants across 13 countries, this study examines (1) which sources of climate information are trusted, (2) what features make a communicator trustworthy, and (3) how these judgments differ between climate change believers and skeptics. Scientists were the most trusted sources among climate believers, but overall, the most trusted sources are informal and identity-based: “friends and family” and “people like me.” Across the sample, trust was predicted not only by demographic variables but also by specific communicator features: most notably clarity, shared values, sincerity, and being respectful of opposing views. Believers and skeptics prioritized different features, underscoring that trust is not a universal response but shaped by ideological identity. These findings reveal the layered and audience-contingent nature of trust in climate communication. By identifying the features that drive trust across different audiences, this study offers practical guidance for communicators interested in tailoring messages and messengers to more effectively engage the public on climate action.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Climate Science and Natural Resource Litigation, Jessica Wentz, Columbia Law School, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law
Climate change has major implications for sustainable use and conservation of natural resources. Many natural systems are already under severe stress and may be unable to sustain historical use patterns; resource management decisions can also exacerbate or mitigate climate change by affecting the balance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The author describes the legal and scientific basis for recognizing agencies’ obligations to assess and respond to climate change, drawing insights from a survey of U.S. litigation involving forests, fisheries, rangelands, and freshwater resources. Litigants have been somewhat successful in driving more rigorous assessments of climate change. However, agencies still frequently conclude that climate impacts are too uncertain or insignificant to warrant a response, and courts will generally defer unless the agency has overlooked or arbitrarily dismissed actionable scientific information. This underscores the importance of collaboration among resource managers, legal advocates, and scientists to develop, disseminate, and communicate scientific information that can meaningfully inform these decisions.
Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Fall 2025, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University
With the first primaries in the 2026 midterm elections just around the corner, the authors found that the economy and the cost of living are the top two issues registered voters say will be “very important” when they decide who they will vote for in the 2026 congressional elections (79% and 78%, respectively). In this context, they also found that 65% of registered voters think global warming is affecting the cost of living in the United States. 49% say policies intended to transition away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy will improve economic growth and provide new jobs (versus 27% who think they will reduce economic growth and cost jobs).
105 articles in 49 journals by 551 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Are Trends of Gulf Stream Transport Uniform Along the Florida Shelf?, Torres?Córdoba & Valle?Levinson, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118418
Drying Tropical America Under Global Warming: Mechanism and Emergent Constraint, He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117131
How climate change broke the Pacific Northwest’s plumbing
Posted on 24 December 2025 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler
Flooding in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) has recently turned deadly serious, as days of intense rain from a powerful atmospheric river have swollen rivers and caused widespread flooding across the PNW.
Here is why:
1. The atmosphere is wetter
The first mechanism is the one you hear about most often: basic thermodynamics. The rule of thumb (the Clausius-Clapeyron relation for the science geeks) is that for every degree Celsius the atmosphere warms, it can hold about 7% more water vapor.
If the atmosphere is a sponge, then a warmer atmosphere is a bigger sponge. This allows the atmospheric river that carries water from the Pacific to soak up more moisture from oceans that are also warmer than average. When that “sponge” hits the Cascades or Olympics and gets wrung out, there is simply more water available to fall than there was in the past.
Because of this, the IPCC says: “Human influence has contributed to the intensification of heavy precipitation in three continents where observational data are more abundant (high confidence) (North America, Europe and Asia).” [IPCC AR6 WG1, Section 11.4.4].
2. The Phase Shift: Rain vs. Snow
This is another critical factor for the PNW. In the cooler 20th-century, much of the precipitation hitting the Cascades or Olympics would fall as snow. Snow is safe. Snow sits there. It accumulates without drama, effectively “banking” water for the spring and summer months when it is needed most.
However, as freezing levels rise due to warming temperatures, precipitation is increasingly falling as rain. Unlike snow, rain does not sit quietly in the mountains and wait for spring. It runs off immediately.
So when a storm dumps 10 inches of precipitation and half of it falls as snow, the rivers only have to handle 5 inches of water immediately. But if all of it falls as rain because it’s 45°F in the mountains, the rivers have to handle the full 10 inches right now. This climate-enhanced runoff can overwhelm the river system, leading to the widespread flooding we see now.
Fact brief - Do solar panels generate more waste than fossil fuels?
Posted on 23 December 2025 by Sue Bin Park
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Do solar panels generate more waste than fossil fuels?
Waste from discarded solar panels is dwarfed by the waste from coal, oil, and gas. In addition, solar panel recycling capacity continues to expand and improve.
A 2023 study estimated that from 2016 – 2050, if power systems do not decarbonize, coal ash would be 300 – 800 times heavier than waste from discarded solar panels, and oily sludge from fossil fuels would be 2 – 5 times heavier.
Currently only about 10 – 15% of panels are recycled in the U.S., but governments and companies are funding additional research and new facilities. Existing plants can already recover around 90 – 95% of a panel’s mass, including glass, aluminum, and steel, and up to 95 – 97% of key semiconductor materials such as cadmium and tellurium.
As solar grows, recycling will cut waste and emissions further, while the bigger waste problem comes from not replacing fossil fuels.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
U.S. Department of Energy Photovoltaic Toxicity and Waste Concerns Are Overblown, Slowing Decarbonization--NREL Researchers Are Setting the Record Straight
The Washington Post Scientists found a solution to recycle solar panels in your kitchen
Solar Energy Solar photovoltaic recycling strategies
Nature Energy Research and development priorities for silicon photovoltaic module recycling to support a circular economy
Energy Strategy Reviews An overview of solar photovoltaic panels’ end-of-life material recycling
Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles
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Zeke's 2026 and 2027 global temperature forecasts
Posted on 22 December 2025 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
Tis the season for global temperature forecasts. The UK Met Office recently released their 2026 prediction, estimating that it is most likely to end up as the second warmest year on record at 1.46C (with a range of 1.34C and 1.58C) relative to the 1850-1900 preindustrial baseline period.1 This is likely warmer than both 2023 and 20252 and with a small chance of being warmer than 2024.
Not to be outdone, James Hansen released his estimate that 2026 temperatures will also be around 1.47C in the GISTEMP dataset (albeit using a somewhat different 1880-1920 baseline)3, with the 12 month average dipping down to around 1.4C in the coming months before rising back up by year’s end.
Hansen also adds a prediction for 2027 at 1.7C (1.65C to 1.75C), albeit with the caveat that this refers to the peak 12-month warming during the year rather than the annual average. The prediction is based on an assumed El Nino developing in late 2026 – something that models have suggested is increasingly likely in recent weeks.
I’ve long done year-ahead predictions of global mean surface temperatures (included in the Carbon Brief annual state of the climate report). I base it on a linear regression model that uses a year count, the prior year’s temperature, the latest monthly temperature, and the predicted ENSO (El Nino / La Nina) conditions of the first three months of the coming year, as these factors tend to be the most predictive historically.
The model is fit on historical data since 19704 using the WMO average of six datasets,5 and I’ve slightly tweaked the model this year to include a squared term for the year count to ensure it is not forced to be too linear (though the effects of this change are minor).
For 2026 I expect global temperatures to be around around 1.41C, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.27C to 1.55C. This means that it is almost certain to be one of the top-4 warmest years, but quite unlikely to exceed 2024’s record. Global temperatures in 2026 will be slightly suppressed by modest La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific early in the year, while a late-developing El Nino (if it occurs) will primarily affect 2027 temperatures.
