Okay, I did an article called Why Renting Really Is For Suckers (And What To Do About It). Fairness demands that I do a companion article on situations where buying is not a good idea.
There actually are some. First off, the math just plain works against it for less than about three years. If you know you’re going to have to relocate in less than three years, chances are you shouldn’t buy. This is not to say that professional speculators are stupid, just that they are playing with different assumptions than most of is. If one victim isn’t desperate enough to sell for thirty percent under the general market, they’ll go find someone who is. But they don’t buy for a place to live. They’re buying with a professional eye towards making a profit, and quite often, they don’t. If your situation is that you’re looking for a home to live in, and you’re going to have to sell it instead of renting it out after less than three years, chances are you shouldn’t buy. In this instance, it’s not the idea of being a property owner in general that is the major factor in the decision, it’s how long you’re going to own that property.
This is not to say that nobody has ever made money buying for less than three years. The just concluded seller’s market right here in California is the counterexample to that contention. But real estate appreciation happens when it happens, and you never know until afterward what it was. If people could predict the market with that much certainty, then it would make sense to try and time the market. They can’t, and it doesn’t, at least not for the ordinary person.
You shouldn’t buy if you can’t get a sustainable loan that you can afford. If you don’t have at least three years of a fixed rate on an amortizing loan you can afford, you should probably not buy. The market returns 5 to 7 percent per year on average. That is a very different thing than five to seven percent every year. Some years are plus twenty. Other years, like this one is likely to end up, are minus twenty. If you have a sustainable, affordable loan, you’ll pay some principal down and you should be able to refinance when the adjustment hits. This doesn’t apply with negative amortization, interest only, or shorter term loans. Particularly if there’s a prepayment penalty, you’ll likely eat up all the principal payments you made with that prepayment penalty. Now suppose you got caught in a twenty percent down year? Over longer periods of time, things even out, trending towards the average return of 5 to 7 percent per year. But that’s no comfort whatsoever to those people who bought into unsustainable loans on overinflated properties in the last two years and are now facing huge problems because they can’t sell for what they owe, and they can’t refinance into a payment they can make. I didn’t do it to anyone; I could have made a lot more money if I was so willing. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t a lot of them out there.
The market is unpredictable. All I can tell you for sure is that it’s still declining right now and the next upturn might not come for several years. The only time the value of your property is important is when you sell or when you refinance, but if you haven’t got a stable loan, you’re looking at a mandatory time when your value is important. If you can’t last until then, the eventual market upswing will be of no comfort. Eventually, I’m confident you’ll make a better profit than you could anywhere else. But eventually can be quite a while, and if your time constraints don’t stretch far enough, that’s a problem. A big problem.
Third group of people who shouldn’t buy is those without a sufficiently stable income, particularly if their available cash isn’t enough to smooth out the bumps. If you need $6000 per month, and you make $24,000 in one whack about every four months, that might appear to be enough, but consider what happens if for some reason it is six months between paychecks? Once you’re a couple of months behind and your credit score is toast, it doesn’t make that go away if your next check after that is only two more months.
I think I’ve been clear enough on the evils of buying too much house for your income. People should not overstretch financially to buy a home, but the majority do. You get a month behind on rent, and it is a problem, but if you get a month behind on your mortgage, that’s part of your credit score for ten years, and puts you in a whole different class of borrower for two. Plus you’re likely to be behind on your next month, and the one after that. This is a lot less of a black mark for renters than it is for owners with a mortgage. Then when you’re ready and can otherwise really afford a mortgage, you can’t get one or you can only get one on prohibitive terms. So save up enough to smooth out the bumps, and it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a down payment also, as that will make the hurdles you have to get over with irregular paychecks that much lower.
That’s basically it. If you think you have another one, I’m interested in it, but those are the only three I can think of. The mathematics and economics do generally favor home ownership, even without that generous tax allowance given for the interest deduction and state property taxes, but there are cases where the general rules get overridden. Contrary to what many people were saying not too long ago, you can lose money in real estate, as the fact that property values locally are down about 20 percent from peak should attest. You can also become financially crippled for years. Nonetheless, if you take care to keep it within the realm of what you can afford, and what you can afford to make payments on indefinitely, then the worst that is likely to happen is that you’ll owe more than the property is theoretically worth for a while. If you don’t need to refinance or sell during that period, that’s just unimportant. In cycles stretching back hundreds of years, real estate has always come back to higher prices than before, even accounting for inflation. The critical thing is to make certain you can wait it out.
Caveat Emptor
What is the Best Way To Save For A Down Payment?
I just moved into a rental house with an option to buy. I figure I can probably save up around $40-45k for a down payment in three years. how should i save? The Roth IRA tax loophole for first time home buyers maxes out at $10k and takes 5 years anyway. It sounds dumb, but the best safe short term investment I can think of is savings bonds. There has to be something better!
Your major constraints here are a relatively short time frame and you want a certain amount of safety. The idea of investing the money is that you want to get more money, not lose your investment savings.
So if you’re going to move outside the realm of guaranteed investments for this purpose, you are going to worship at the altar of diversification. Stocks generally go up, but can go down (roughly 28 percent of all years since records have been kept), and indeed, are not anything like a panacea. Therefore, if you’re going to risk the stock market or the bond market in order to obtain their higher returns, you’re going to want to diversify, diversify, diversify in order to prevent anything short of a general market decline from ruining your investment.
With that firmly in mind, individual stocks are probably not a good idea. If successful, the idea is that the income will be mostly capital gains, which are taxed at a lower rate. Unfortunately for this idea, it’s hard to get efficient and diversified individual stock investment for less than $100k. At $100,000, you’ve got a down payment to be extremely proud of.
The same with individual bonds to an even greater extent. When most bonds run in $10,000 to $50,000 denominations, diversifying is not really an option when you’re just trying to save up for a down payment. If one of your bonds suffered a significant downgrade, bond price would take a hit, and therefore a very large part of your investment would suffer a setback.
Next on the list is government savings bonds and bank CDs. These offer a guaranteed return. The problems are that it’s a mediocre return at best, and it’s all ordinary income. Still, 5.5% or so for bank CDs is safe and secure, even if it reduces to about 4% after taxes. US Treasury securities have a four year minimum holding period to get their guarantee. Me? I stopped loaning the government money twenty years ago.
All of the various insurance products are a bad idea. You’re saving for something you want within five years, not something forty years away or trying to insure a possible loss. Nor does the tax treatment help. Secure commodities investment is one of those oxymorons.
Finally, there are mutual funds. These are diversified by their very nature. In fact, my usual complaint is that they are too diversified, but in this case, that’s actually good. Pick a good fund family that covers all of the major asset classes, including bonds. Yes, you pay management fees (and advisement fees or a sales loan if you are smart to help keep you from over-reacting to short term market events), but you can average nine to 13 percent per year, pretax, seven to ten afterward. A large portion of gains will be capital gains, taxed at lower rates than ordinary income. This isn’t a certain or guaranteed investment, and can lose some of your principal, even all of it in theory. Nonetheless if you’re comfortable taking what is in my estimation a small amount of risk, it can really pay off.
Caveat Emptor
The Lender’s Rule of Mortgage Payments
Every so often, someone who thinks they’re a wit sends me a copy of The Rules For Relationships According To Women. Unlike those rules, which might have been funny around the time Nefertiti was a debutante, these rules are real and they are not based upon caprice.
Very recently, I was walking through a grocery store parking lot and heard someone screaming on their cell phone, “It wasn’t my fault! The broker told me not to make that payment, and then they didn’t pay the loan off on time!” Which leads me to Rule Number One: It is YOUR responsibility to make all payments on time. Nobody else. Your name is on that contract, not theirs. Under text that says essentially, “I agree to repay this loan on these terms.” When you are in the process of refinancing or selling, make it a point to keep paying that mortgage on time and in full. The worst thing that will happen is that you will get a check back a couple weeks later. Whereas if you blow the payment off, you are taking the risk, as happened to this person, that some incompetent person doing your new loan will not get the loan done in time to make the payment date. On the sixteenth, there’s a penalty due. On the thirty-first day, it hits your credit, where it can conceivably make a difference of 150 points. And if the lender is getting ready to fund the loan the next day and runs your credit then and sees your drop, the terms of your loan just got worse, if they can fund the loan at all. It is the mark of a bad loan officer to tell you not to make your payments. A good one will specifically tell you to continue to make payments on time. I haven’t blown a rate lock in a very long time, but there’s always the possibility it might happen and the loan takes longer than I think it will. Don’t let it happen to you. Make your payments on time, whatever you’re doing.
Corollary to Rule Number One: You are responsible for getting it to them. All of this nice convenient stuff about mailing a check or sending the payment online is quite a convenience, but they do not legally have to do it. Your grandparents had to walk the check (or the money) in every month. You can still do this if your lender has branches and you suddenly remember on the 15th that you forgot to make your mortgage payment. Many lenders are very forgiving about this. But they don’t have to be,
If that payment doesn’t get made on time, it is your fault. End of discussion. If you mailed it off on time and it got lost in the mail, you are the one that owes the penalty. If you transferred the money online, and it somehow doesn’t get credited to the right account, it is your fault. These don’t happen often, but they do happen. The lenders are actually pretty forgiving about it, provided you can convince them that the payment was made. You have a receipt, a canceled check, something that says you made the payment in full and on time. If you’re good enough about paying on time, sending the check on the first even though it’s not officially late until the 16th, they’re pretty forgiving about checks that get lost. On the other hand, if you are always paying on the last possible day, the lender is going to regard that late fee as the least they are due. While you are at it, always include something with your account number on it when you send the money. Write it on the check, include a coupon, put it in comments. Otherwise the lender could conceivably end up misapplying the funds of the check, especially if they figure to use the address on the check, and you’re making a payment on another property. Most of the time they do get it right. But if they don’t, it’s your fault. If they get the payment with all of the necessary information and misapply it, that’s their fault. If they didn’t get it, on time or at all, or missing some important information, it’s your fault.
There is no rule two, at least that I can think of right now. There is only one rule, but you violate it at your extreme disadvantage.
Caveat Emptor
Issues with Multiple Mortgages
We have several rental properties that we own (more than 10). When we were younger, before we got married, we both moved around a lot and bought houses, moved, stayed a year or so and did it again. I of course don’t have to mention why we did this (no money down, low fixed rates, etc.) However, now I am running into a dilema. I am finding that no one wants to refi or do purchase money loans now that we have 10+ mortgages. I need good rates to make my cash flow work. I have recently herniated one of my discs and have been out of work for almost 3 months, so I need to take money out of our house that is paid for, but no one wants to do it. Any suggestions on how to get around that? My credit scores range from 763-805, so that is defintaely not the problem. Any advice would be greatly appreciated as I am down to crunch time in needing to get some money.
Tough situation.
The reason for this problem is that whereas nationally, vacancy rates are much higher, and here in high cost California they are only running about 4 percent, the bank will only allow 75 percent of rent to be used in the calculation of whether you qualify or do not (debt to income ratio). Furthermore, on the liabilities side they charge the full payment, taxes, and homeowner’s insurance, as well as maintenance. To “pile on”, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won’t buy loans where the applicant has more than ten loans, period. But note that this is ten loans, not ten properties. If you consolidate them, you dodge that issue.
Here in the high cost areas of California there was a while where it was unheard of for a recent purchase rental to be turning a positive cash flow, at least according to “lender math”. But for properties purchased a decade ago here as well as right now, and nationally in many markets, there are people making money hand over fist on rental properties whom the bank believes must be cash destitute. There is no way they will qualify for a mortgage loan without tweaking something.
There are two main ways to solve the problem.
10 mortgages (assuming you still own the properties) gives one serious status as a real estate investor. The loan should then be able to be done. Not necessarily A paper, but subprime with that kind of a credit score and a prepayment penalty will give them comparable – perhaps even better rates. Furthermore, on investment properties, there’s a minimum of about a 1.5 point to 2 point hit on the loan costs just due to the fact that it is investment property. So refinancing an investment property is not something you want to do often. If you can’t go 10 years between refinances, something is probably wrong. Especially given the extremely narrow spread between long term loans like the 30 year fixed rate loan and shorter term fixed rate hybrids, for investment property a 30 year fixed rate loan is likely the way to go.
The alternative is to go with a commercial loan. Commercial loans are much easier than residential, and they will allow a real estate investor to qualify where they wouldn’t under residential rules. However, the rates are both much higher and variable (“Prime plus margin”) rather than fixed.
But the key part is “real estate investor.”
This is a business. You’re going to need an accountant to attest to the fact that you’ve been operating this business at least two years. But that gives you standing as at least partially self-employed as the operator of a real estate investment business.
Which once upon a time gave you an out to do stated income, possibly even A paper. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case – one more instance in which people who abused stated income really ruined the market. You’re going to have to state that you earn more income than you do. There are no longer stated income loans available from any source that I am aware of. Given the environment today, a good loan officer looking to cover themselves is going to want you to acknowledge that you can make whatever the payment is really going to be. I don’t care if you need $6000 per month to qualify and you tell me that you make $12,000 per month, or $120,000. Any time you are looking at stated income, you’re looking at a situation that is vulnerable to abuse, both from the point of view of a consumer being put into a loan they really cannot afford, and from the point of view of a bank lending money based upon a credit score and source of income that really may not be there. This one is especially vulnerable to the latter concern in the current market, and I would likely take a real careful look at any bank statements that pass through my hands to make certain it’s not patently disprovable. If it makes a borrower uneasy, well half of the reason is to protect them. Stated Income may have been colloquially called “liar’s loans”, but that is not what they are intended for, and in this case you are intentionally overstating income in order to qualify under unrealistic underwriting rules.
The second approach was NINA – a No Income, No Asset loan, also known as “no ratio” – meaning no debt to income ratio. These were much easier to do for the loan officer, as they’re completely driven off credit score, but carried still higher rates, and unfortunately, despite these being less fraudulent, I no longer have any idea of where to find one outside of “hard money” loans carrying interest rates above 12%.
The only general solution available today is a portfolio loan. If you really do make a million dollars a year from something else, you can get a loan on any number of properties from a lender who holds the loan in their own name rather than trying to sell it to Fannie and Freddie. This begs the question of how you make the money or where it comes from, but it is possible. Nor can your lender de-fund existing loans unless it’s for a reason allowed in the Note (loan contract)
There always was serious potential for abuse in this situation, a potential that lenders were willfully refusing to see back in the Era of Make Believe Loans, but now the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. The lenders are now so paranoid about these loans for which there is good reason and a valid market for existence, that these markets are going completely unserved. Self-employed people and commissioned salesfolk have to file taxes, also, and tax forms are the preferred method for documenting income. Nonetheless, because there are significant deductions that would not otherwise be allowed due to the fact that these professions are largely paying bills with “before tax” money whereas most folks are paying with “after tax” money, people in such professions needed the alternative documentation methods in order to qualify for loans. With those alternate methods all but non-existent now, people in many professions (including real estate agents and mortgage loan officers) are finding it difficult to get loans at all. There always was the danger of talking yourself into a loan that you could not really afford, but while lenders were being willfully blind to it until recently, now they’ve got an obsession with avoiding that market completely. I am sure that business models will spring up allowing that loan market to be served within a another year or two, but in the meantime it’s going to be really hard for people who are confined to that market to get a loan.
Caveat Emptor
Do Furnishings Convey With The Property?
If a home for sale has a refrigerator included on the listing report, and the buyer’s agent does not write that it goes to the seller in a contract, is the buyer actually entitled to the refrigerator. I am actually going through this right now.
The listing does not matter. What does the purchase contract say? That is the complete controlling fact of the whole entire transaction.
If the contract is silent, what matters most is whether the refrigerator in question is appurtenant to the land or not. Appurtenances are things which are physically and structurally attached to the land which is always the primary thing being sold in a real estate transaction. For a standard house, nobody would seriously argue that they have the right to remove it, because it is attached securely to the property. There are service pipes coming out of the ground attached to the ground and a foundation it is attached to. There are electrical service wires, telephone wires, and cable TV wires. All of which would come up if you pulled the house away. So the house is appurtenant to the land. This is how all real estate transactions are really structured, by the way. You are buying the land, and the house, if there is one, comes along because it’s attached to that land.
So if the refrigerator is somehow built in, such that removal would be a nontrivial project, then it’s appurtenant to the land. If all you have to do us unplug it and push it away on a dolly, that’s not appurtenant, and there is no more reason why they should have to leave that than why they should have to leave their dog, cat, or child.
Now this is not to say that you can’t build an excellent court case based upon the fact that there was an implicit promise made in the listing, and everything else in the contract was built off of what that listing said. Talk to an attorney for more information than I can ever give you on that score.
Even if they’re not obligated, the seller might leave the refrigerator anyway. Maybe they’ve got another, maybe they are just living up to what they promised even though they might not be legally required to do so. Most people are mostly honorable.
In any of these cases, of course, the seller also can force you to go to court by being an obstinate donkey. It’s not like you have the magic power of enforcing agreements. That power belongs solely to the executive branch, which will take no action in cases like this without a court order. Whatever the court says is final. Unless it’s some $25,000 wonder fridge, however, it is not likely to be worth going to court over. Much cheaper to buy a new refrigerator, and your expected return on investment is much higher.
Caveat Emptor
Bridge Loans
One of the things I’m seeing a lot of these days is blanket advice on bridge loans.
A bridge loan is a loan that you take out with the explicit intention of having it be short term. The most common situation is a loan against property A, which you own but plan to sell, so that you can put a down payment on property B (or buy it outright) right now.
The motivation for this comes from the fact that people get paid to do bridge loans, and they are typically very easy loans to do. Frankly, the people making the recommendation make more money by doing the bridge loan than by not doing it, and they are not motivated to do the calculations and legwork to see which is the better deal for the consumer.
When it comes to money, blanket recommendations of any sort are automatically suspect, and usually wrong. Every situation is different, and there can be factors that cause an ethical professional to recommend something in one case where they would recommend against in another superficially similar one.
Bridge loans are no exception. In the example above, the advantage is that they make you a more qualified buyer, and can get you better rates on the loan for the new property. The disadvantage is that their closing costs are just as high as any other loan. So you’re spending about $3500 extra plus points plus junk fees (if any). They are also, by definition, cash out refinances. The rate-cost tradeoff for cash-out refinances is less favorable than for purchase money loans. In plain English, they cost more.
The next major issue that arises is that they can make it more difficult to qualify for the loan on the new property, which can often mean that you need to go stated income or NINA when you might otherwise have qualified full documentation, which means you got a higher rate on the new property anyway, and that you’re going to want to refinance your new purchase as soon as Property A sells anyway, sending another set of loan costs down the drain. Don’t get me wrong, I love to do loans, and my pocketbook loves for me to do loans, but it’s a good loan officer’s job to look after your interests first.
Finally, choosing a bridge loan can force a choice upon you: A good loan that puts you in the position of having a need to sell within a specified time frame, and a mediocre loan that may not. The best (lowest) rates are for short term loans. Always have been, always will be. However, if the market sours, this can cause you to either accept an offer you would not have otherwise considered, or flush another set of closing costs down the toilet, when if you had chosen the mediocre loan, you would have been okay indefinitely.
Let’s crunch some numbers. Let’s say you have a property currently worth $250,000 that you bought for $125,000 and have paid down to $100,000. You want to upgrade to a $400,000 property now that your promotion and raise have settled in.
The first thing you do is pull cash out to 80 percent. On a 30 day lock of a 30 year conforming fixed rate loan, assuming you’ve got good credit, when I originally wrote this was about a 6.5 rate without points, and you’ll actually get about $96,500 of that $100,000 you take out. I looked at shorter term fixed rate loans as well, but with the yield curve inverted right now since you’re planning to sell, anything without a prepayment penalty is about the same, and a prepayment penalty is contra-indicated, as it means you’ll have to pay thousands of dollars when you do sell.
You take and put that $96500 down on a new home purchase loan on a $400,000 home. It’s over 20% down, so no PMI concerns, and no splitting into a second loan. But because you’ve got that $200k loan sitting over there, now you have to go stated income on the loan for the new home.
Actually, at this update, I don’t know of any stated income loans. What that means is there’s no way to qualify without coming up with more cash or waiting for the first property to sell. This means moving twice or hoping your buyer will let you lease the property back long enough to find a new property. Or simultaneous closings, a massively stress-inducing plan, because you’re betting your ability to close on someone else being on-the ball.
But when we had it, stated income was one way of making this work. This means you traded no verification of income for a higher rate/cost tradeoff. In the example we’re using, your rate would have been about 6.75 without points. Soak off another $3500 in loan costs, plus purchase costs of maybe another $1000. You now have two loans, one for $200k at 6.5 and one for about $312,000 at 6.75. Now the original home sells. Let’s say you got full value of $250,000. You pay 5% in real estate commission, and maybe 2% more in other costs. That’s $17,500, so you get $32,500 in your pocket. You have three choices, two of them productive. You can 1) Spend the money, 2) Invest the money, or 3) Use it on the other mortgage. A paydown, where you just plop the money down and keep making your same old current payment is a good idea (Unless there’s a “first dollar” prepayment penalty), but most folks are obsessed with lowering their payment. So they take that $32,500, and of which $3500 is loan expenses, and (because now they can do full documentation), they end up with something like a $283,000 loan at 6.25 percent, assuming rates don’t move. Total cost of loans: $10,500 assuming you pay no points for any of your loans. Perhaps possible for someone with above average credit. Not likely if your credit is below average.
Suppose instead, that you just leave that $100,000 loan sit on your original property. You’re still going to have to do stated income on the new loan on the new property. But instead, you go with a 80 percent first, 15 percent second (another thing you can’t do at the update because no second mortgage holder will go over 90% loan to value ratio) because you can come up with $25,000 until the first property sells. Same 6.75 rate on the first, and the second is an interest only at about 10.25, just to use the same lender whose sheet I happened to pull from the stack for the exercise. Loan costs, $4000 without points, which I priced the loan to avoid. First house sells, you get $132,500, replace the $25,000, and pay off that second, leaving you a $320,000 loan and about $47,500, holding cost assumptions constant ($1000 in non-loan costs). You could do a paydown, leaving $272,500 balance on a 6.75 loan, or you could take $3500 in closing costs and refinance to 6.25, just as above, leaving a balance of $276,000 if you don’t pay any points. Total loan costs, $7500 and you only have to avoid paying points twice (once, as opposed to twice, if you take the paydown option. It takes a little under 37 months to break even on your interest savings). Furthermore, in less than hot markets, it gives you greater leverage with your seller to pay some part of your closing costs: “Do this, or I don’t qualify”. They have the home on the market for a reason, and they can help the buyer in hand or they can hope for another buyer to come along.
In this example, not doing a bridge loan saves you about $6500, less the additional interest (about $512/month) for the second mortgage until your first home sells, but plus approximately $541 per month interest every month between the time you initially refinance your original property and the time it finally sells, a longer period of time. Plus one set of possible mortgage points. So it’s not difficult to construct scenarios where it’s a good idea not to.
Let’s look at a different scenario, however. Let’s say instead of upgrading, you’re already in the $400,000 home, and looking to downsize to a $100,000 condo. Furthermore, let’s say you bought for $200,000 and are now down to $160,000 owed, just to keep the proportions consistent. You borrow out to $265,000 (paying $3500 in loan costs), which you qualify for full doc at 6.25. You then pay cash for the condo (including $1000 for purchase transaction costs, and you’ve still got $500 in your pocket). Furthermore, an all cash, no contingency transaction is a powerful negotiating tool for a seller to give you a good price. Then when your original property sells, costing you say 7%, or $28,000, in selling costs. You net $107,500 in your pocket. If you did no bridge loan, let’s still assume you can come up with $25,000 on the short term, and you still qualify full documentation. Your rate on the condo is 6.375 without points, holding assumptions consistent. Then you sell the first property for the same $400k, paying the same 7% ($28,000) and paying off the $80,000 loan on the condo as well as replacing the $25,000. Net still $107,500 in your pocket, less additional interest charges for a little longer period, but you cut your stress level and put yourself in a stronger bargaining position, which is likely to be worth doing.
There are any number of reasons and factors to do a bridge loan or not to do a bridge loan. You may not have a minimum down payment without a bridge loan. That’s probably the most common, as not all properties and purchases are eligible for 100 percent financing (at this update, the only way I know to get 100% financing is with a VA loan, and some require as much as a forty or even fifty percent down. The way a necessary transaction is structured. The presence or absence of 1035 exchange considerations is often a factor. Your credit score may limit you, or your ability to qualify full documentation may dictate the advantage lies in a different direction. Every situation has the potential for factors that may dictate an answer other than that given by pure numerical computation, and there are therefore, no valid blanket answers to the question of whether or not to do a bridge loan.
Caveat Emptor
Reserves for Real Estate Loans
Thanks again for the terrific posts. I’ve learned more about mortgages in the past two months than I ever dreamed I might. I am looking to buy my first home soon, and have myself in a good credit position to do so. My credit score is over 800 and I have no back-end debt – no car payments, alimony, student loans, etc. My annual salary is well over $100K, and while my down payment will not be as much as I would like, I should be able to put up 20% of the purchase price. Before I shop for a loan, I have some questions and would appreciate your insight. 1. Do monthly “subscriptions” such as landline phone bill, cable, internet, cell phone, etc. come into consideration? As I have no cell phone and no cable (and don’t intend to get them), I see my monthly expenses in this regard as significantly lower than most other borrowers. 2. Do my retirement savings come into play? I have saved conscientiously for several years and between IRA’s and pension funds (fully vested) I have a significant amount put away. Thanks again for the teachings
Gosh, I didn’t think a dream client like this existed any more!
In general, there are only three instances when reserves really come into play. They are:
1) Stated Income. Since people in this category were not documenting their income, for a true stated income loan they are looking for evidence that these folks are living within your means. The measurement that has evolved is six months PITI (Principal Interest Taxes and Insurance) in a form where you can get to it – savings accounts, investments, something. If you have a retirement account, such as a 401, IRA or similar, most lenders will allow you to use a discounted amount, most often 70 percent, as the money would require the payment of taxes and penalties. Roth IRAs may be treated differently, as the rules are different. There were Stated Income Stated Assets loan programs, but when you get right down to it, those loans look more like heavily propagandized NINA (No Income, No Assets, aka No Ratio loans) than they did a true Stated Income. (at this update, I am unaware of any lender who is actually funding stated income loans of any sort)
2) Payment shock. If your payments are going to be much higher than rent was (or previous payments were), many lenders will require two to three months reserves of PITI payments in reserves.
3) Cash to close. No matter what the loan, the underwriter is going to be looking at the loan to make certain that you have the cash to close, and any reserve requirements are in addition to this. If your loan is going to require a certain amount of cash, either in the form of down payment or loan costs or most often, for prepaid interest or an escrow account, then the underwriter wants to see evidence you’ve got it. It’s no good for the bank for the loan to be approved, the documents printed and signed, the notary paid, and then the loan doesn’t close because you didn’t really have the cash. Seller paid closing costs are getting to be a really touchy point with many lenders, by the way, as they indicate the property may not really be worth the ostensible sales price.
In any of these cases, the underwriter is going to want to see evidence as to where the money came from. They want to know that you’ve either built it up over time or have had it for quite some time or that you can document where you got it from. What they are looking at with these requirements is the possibility that you got a loan from somewhere that you’re going to have to pay back, and the payments on which may mean you no longer qualify under Debt to Income ratio guidelines.
Mind you, it never hurts to have money socked away. But it’s not worth any huge amount of contortions to prove. For A paper lenders, the guidelines are razor sharp, and excessive reserves are not a part of them. You’ve either got the required amount or you don’t, and the fact that you have $100 million in investment accounts isn’t relevant – and it may cause some underwriters to start wondering why you’re not paying for the property in cash or putting more of a down payment (Anytime you give an underwriter more information than required, you run the risk that they will ask you difficult questions about it). Some subprime lenders may approve a loan they would not otherwise have approved, or maybe offer better terms than they might otherwise, but there have been enough adverse experiences with this that it is becoming more rare.
Monthly subscriptions (utilities, etcetera) are why the permissible debt-to-income ratio (DTI) isn’t higher. You can cancel cable TV, you can cancel dish network, you can cancel pay per view, you can cancel magazines, although most folks want phone, gas, and electricity. Utilities etcetera do not count against debt to income. Only the payments on actual debt count.
Caveat Emptor
Payment, Interest Rate and Up Front Costs: Choosing a loan intelligently
Most people tend to shop for a mortgage based upon the payment. They figure the lowest payment will be the cheapest loan.
This is the way most people make banks rich. Because they are looking for the loan with the lowest rate and the lowest payment, they choose the loan with two or three points that’s going to take twelve years to pay for its costs, and then after they’ve sunk all those costs into the front end of the loan, refinance within two years and sink a whole new set of costs into the new loan. The bank gets all this lovely money, and then the consumer lets them off the hook by refinancing, and the bank doesn’t have to carry through on the full amount of their end of the bargain.
In point of fact, when shopping for a mortgage loan, there are at least four factors the consumer should consider. The best loan for a given consumer in a given situation at a given time is based upon all of these factors. Each varies in importance from loan to loan.
These factors are:
The monthly payment
The monthly interest charges
The costs that are sunk into the loan in order to get it
How long you’re likely to keep the loan.
This is not to say that only these factors are of importance. For example, the possibility of “back end” costs when you refinance is likely to be a critical factor when considering a loan that has a prepayment penalty. Most people that accept prepayment penalties end up actually paying them – a thing to keep in mind before accepting a prepayment penalty. If you know there’s a good chance you’re going to get hit with an $8000 charge for paying it off too early, that needs to be added into the likely costs of the loan.
The monthly payment is important for obvious reasons. If this is not something you’re comfortable paying every month for month after month and year after year, then getting this loan is probably not something you should do. The costs of getting behind in your mortgage are significant, and the costs of going into default are enormous, and both may likely continue even after you have dealt with them. When I started this website, I was talking with people all of the time who say, “We’ve got to buy something now, before it gets even worse!” Furthermore, there are always people trying to stretch too far to buy that “perfect” house, and paying four points to buy the rate down to make the payment a little more affordable is one of the tricks of scoundrels. Many agents and loan officers will happily put people in either situation into a home, with a loan payment that looks affordable on the surface, but isn’t. If you don’t examine the situation carefully, not just for now but for the future. you’re likely to be getting into something you cannot afford, and is likely to have huge costs and ramifications for years down the line. Neither of these people is your friend. They are each making thousands, often tens of thousands of dollars, by putting you into a situation that is not stable, and that you’re going to have to deal with down the line, while they’re long gone and putting some other trusting person who doesn’t know any better into the same situation as you. If the situation is not both stable and affordable, pass it by.
Once we have noted that you need to be able to afford it, the monthly payment is actually the LEAST important of these four factors. As long as it’s something you can afford, do not charge straight ahead, distracted by the Big Red Cape of “Low Payment” while you are being bled to death by other things. Many of these Matadors (which means killers in Spanish) will bleed you to death while acting like your friend by distracting you with the “affordable low payment”, not unlike the matador distracts the bull with the cape so they never see the sword. Due to lack of a real financial education in the licensing process, a disturbingly large number do not realize they are bleeding people, but that doesn’t help their victims. A loan payment that is higher but still affordable may be a better loan for you – and in fact this is more likely true than not.
The three other factors are each far more important than payment. Payment is important. People who are unable to make their payments are called insolvent. Many of them file bankruptcy, have liens placed upon them, wage garnishments, suffer for years because of bad credit ratings, etcetera. But just because the cash flow is better right now does not mean the situation is better – that way lies the Ponzi scheme, Enron, and many other famous wrecks in the financial graveyard. I’ve been telling people this for years – and now with the loan meltdown it’s become undeniable. Negative amortization and other unsustainable loans will come back around to bite those who use them. Guaranteed.
There is no universal ranking of which of the remaining three factors is the most important. They must be compared as a group in the light of a given situation: YOUR situation.
The monthly interest charges are simple. Principle balance times interest rate. This starts at the amount of the new loan contract (with all the costs added in, of course) times the interest rate.
The costs sunk into the loan shouldn’t be any more difficult to compute, but they are. As I have gone over elsewhere, it is an unfortunate fact that rarely does a mortgage provider tell the entire truth about the costs of the loan until it’s too late to do anything about it. The rules for the 2010 good faith estimate only make it slightly more difficult to lie, while confusing the issue as to what actual costs are. If you have an ethical loan provider, the amount on the Good Faith Estimate (or Mortgage Loan Disclosure Statement here in California) should match what shows on your HUD 1 at the end of the process. Please remember to note any prepayment penalty or other back end charges as a separate dollar amount. But if these figures aren’t accurate, they’re completely worthless in any attempt to evaluate which loan is better for you, or indeed whether to get any loan. The number one reason why this is done is because from the point of view of crooks, the flip of a coin beats absolute knowledge that the other loan is better. Once people say they want the loan, most will stick with it even if evidence becomes available that they shouldn’t.
The thing that is most difficult to determine is how long you intend to keep the loan. Most people have no reliable crystal ball to gaze into the future.
The obvious answer to this dilemma is to compute a break even point. This falls short with regards to higher costs incurred after disposing of the loan as a result of having a higher balance, but it’s a start. If one loan has lower costs and a lower interest rate, there’s no need to go through the computations. But if as is common (a given lender always has a tradeoff between rate and cost), one loan has a higher sunk cost and the other has a higher monthly interest charge, divide the difference in sunk costs by the difference in interest charges per month. This gives a figure in months that is a break even point. Don’t forget to add in any possibility of a prepayment penalty.
With this breakeven figure in months, you can calculate which is likely to be the better loan for you, using your own situation as a guide. If the breakeven is 54 months and you’re being transferred in 36, the answer is obvious. If you’ve refinanced at intervals of twenty-four months your whole life, a 54 month breakeven is not likely to be beneficial. If you’re going to need to sell in two and a half years when mom retires, that’s a clue, too. And if you’re a first time home buyer starting out, remember that 50% of all homes are sold or refinanced within two years, so unless you have some reason to suspect that you are likely to be different, take that into account. Far too many people waste thousands of dollars regularly by paying the up-front costs for loans that they will not keep long enough to break even.
Caveat Emptor
Mortgage and Real Estate Red Flags
This is intended as one of those occasional posts that gets expanded and reposted from time to time. This list is not exhaustive, although over time it is intended to become closer. If you have one, send it to me (dm at)
Any of these is sufficient reason, all by itself, not to do business with that company or person, to cancel your loan if in progress, or to go get another backup loan.
Any actual lie
Up front application fees, or sign up fees.
Up front lock fees.
Up front appraisal fees, as opposed to at the point of appraisal. (NOTE: With HVCC now in effect, this has changed. Consumers are no longer allowed to pay the appraiser directly, so the lender now needs to collect it until and unless HVCC is removed)
Any up front fee beyond credit report (or for now, appraisal).
Requiring the originals of your documents.
Trying to sell you a Negative amortization loan, under any of its names, without explaining in detail all of the gotchas
I used to say “not locking your rate, or letting it float.” This is another thing that has changed now with changes in the business. Every loan we lock that doesn’t close for any reason is now costing all of our clients that do close extra fees, so we have to wait until there is a reasonable assurance of closing before locking. I’m not happy about it, but I have to do business the lender’s way or leave the business
On stated income or NINA loans, not giving a real idea of what the payment is going to be, and making sure you can afford it. (Stated income is almost non-existent now).
On full documentation or EZ documentation loans, needing to document more money than you make.
Requiring you to pay an “in house” appraiser (Who is receiving a salary)
Not allowing you to choose an appraiser if you want to. (Another change with HVCC – this is not allowed now)
Consistently using the same phrase in response to a question. “Nothing out of your pocket” ($30,000 added to your mortgage) and “Thirty Year Loan” (note the absence of the words “fixed rate”) are two that are sufficiently pervasive as to merit special mention.
An answer to a question that is somehow similar, instead of to the question you asked. Especially if said obviously intended to distract and mollify you, or is a pat phrase you’ve heard them use before.
You check their calculations on a couple of calculators and the numbers are both consistent and different from what you were quoted as a payment. (Some web calculators lie, but they usually lie in slightly different ways, although note that an auto payment calculator uses different first payment assumptions).
(Yes, regulations have been put in place that make it extremely difficult for the more ethical providers)
Buying:
Use of non-standard forms when standard forms are available
Asking you to sign an Exclusive Buyer’s Agent Agreement before they’ve shown any property.
Asking you to sign an Exclusive Buyer’s Agent Agreement at all without furnishing you something special (i.e. daily foreclosures lists, or some service you would otherwise have to pay for).
Not finding out what your budget range is and sticking with it. For example, if you’ve got $30,000 for a down payment and closing costs, can qualify for a $270,000 loan, they shouldn’t show you anything that you cannot get for $300,000 total, including all costs you need to pay.
Not finding out what you actually make, and what your current monthly obligations add up to. This lets me, as the real estate agent, know what I’m really dealing with here, even though I have no real need to know if I’m not doing the loan. In case you haven’t gotten the idea, there are a lot of mortgage folks out there who may not have your best interest at heart, and “stated income” loans allow for a lot of sins. You can get offended at invasion of privacy if you want, but I’d be grateful – This is one part of the system checking another, looking out for you, when they could just grab their commission and bow out of the picture.
Promising to find houses below market value. I do my best, but so does every other agent out there. This is something nobody can guarantee, and most require taking risks or putting all cash into the transaction, and they’re usually gone before the public even has a chance.
Telling you about “money in your pocket” when you ask about closing costs
Selling:
Use of non-standard forms where standard forms are available.
Excessive pressure to sign listing agreement immediately (Some pressure is normal and to be expected)
Not being upfront about their business model. I’ve got an article about business models in the real estate industry (there are 2 basic, and many variations). Each has situations they are best for, and situations they are not so great for. You want to know if it fits your situation.
Not explaining what properties in your area are selling for before they ask for the listing.
Promising to get more for the property than the market will support. If there is a competing property on the market cheaper, or a better property on the market for the same price, buyers will choose that one instead of yours.
Putting the property on the market before it’s ready and available to show.
Not holding at least one open house on a weekend date within two weeks of listing. Sometimes this is tough during the holiday season, but there’s no excuse for the rest of the year. Especially during the summer, if they want to take a three week vacation, there should be someone else there to take up the slack. Perhaps it might be unproductive if you live in a thinly inhabited area, but anywhere within the commuting area of a major city, this is a minimum.
Caveat Emptor
Relying Upon Reputation: There Are No Silver Bullets
On a regular basis, I get emails that ask me what I think of a particular company. When I check out public forums, I see questions about particular companies every time. “What do you think of X Realty, or Y Mortgage?”
Reputation has a certain value of course, but in my experience, these people are overvaluing reputation. These people are looking for a “silver bullet” solution to their situation that lets them relax and not pay attention, and there aren’t any. They want to be taken care of without doing the mental work of figuring out whether the person is really doing a good job. “This is a great company, and great company would never take advantage of me, so I must be getting a great bargain!”
This utterly leaves aside any number of issues. Suppose the Mortgage Firm of Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe were paying me a fee for every referral. Most people might have justifiable concerns about whether my recommendation was motivated by that fee or by the desire to get them a great loan. Well if you’re chumming for a recommendation, you have no idea if the anonymous person recommending the firm of Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe is a virtuous benefactor – or one of their loan officers. The bigger the firm, the more loan officers they have. Huge National Megacorporation can have hundreds of their loan officers log on to the website anonymously and all endorse National Megacorporations loan programs for some mysterious reason. Suppose the person isn’t affiliated with Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe, but does work for a similar firm. They could be trying to build demand for the same sort of operation that feeds them, so when people read about Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe’s methods being recommended, and then encounter this similar firm, they are ready to do business.
Suppose the person answering is a complete babe in the woods? They just plain have no idea. They’ve never gotten a loan, or if they have, they got took just as badly as anyone else in the history of the world, and worse than most. Does the possibility of such a anonymous recommendation for the Mortgage firm of Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe seem like a thing you want to follow? Unless you audit that person’s transaction and compare it to other similar transactions going on at the same time, you have no real idea whether this person would recognize a scam if it bit them. Even if you do audit their transaction, that doesn’t necessarily mean anything, good or bad, for your situation.
Suppose the reason they thought Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe did a good job was because they didn’t pay attention. They’ve read every single one of my articles, and they understand all of the things that could go wrong, and they actually know how to read a HUD 1 form, but they just didn’t bother because their Uncle Joe works for Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe, and they trust Uncle Joe completely, and Uncle Joe would never take advantage of them. This ignores the issue that Uncle Joe is unlikely to be your loan officer, and even if he was, Uncle Joe may have compunctions about his family that do not apply to you. Furthermore, a very large fraction of the most unethical stuff I’ve seen since I’ve been in this business was Uncle Joe (or Brother Moe, or Sister Sue, or Cousin Lu) raking people over the coals who they knew would not shop around for a better deal. But even if they are completely unrelated, they decided to trust Joe, and didn’t do the diligence that would have told them whether Joe was doing a good job, let alone the best possible job.
Now in both the loan and in the real estate business, service is provided by individuals, not companies. It’s the guy you’re sitting down talking to right here that decides how much of a margin they are going to work on, not some mysterious exalted Chief Operating Officer in New York City. That COO may lay out base requirements that say “no more than X, no less than Y”, but it’s the person doing your loan, or the agent doing your transaction, that decides where in that spectrum you fall. And I shouldn’t have to point out that if they say “The corporate president says we have to make at least two points on every loan!” and somebody else offers you a better loan for you, that’s their problem, not yours. They are not getting, or at least they should not get your business if you know of a better possibility. You don’t owe anyone your business.
Finally, every situation is unique. People ask me what I think of a particular lender, and I’m thinking about the clients they’ll do well with, or the clients where that particular lender’s programs are most competitive. The lender with the best thirty year fixed rate mortgage in the business is not a lender I would use for an 80/20 short term piggyback on someone with a 600 credit score. That particular lender doesn’t want to touch 100 percent financing, and refuses to do business at all with anyone whose credit score is less than 620. The lender I’d most likely use for the latter borrower has a rate and cost tradeoff for their loans that knocks them completely out of contention for the A paper full documentation 80 percent LTV thirty year fixed rate loan with no prepayment penalty. They’re not competitive for that borrower, and both that account executive and I know it. They’d be grateful to me for placing the loan with them, and they’d certainly get it done, but my wholesalers and I have an understanding: The lender who has a program that can deliver the lowest rate cost tradeoff on the best terms for the client gets the business. They don’t want to compete on price, but a good loan officer forces them to do precisely that. And if the wholesaler is one of those who refuses to compete on the basis I want them to compete on, there are plenty who will. Don’t BS me about service. Everybody should have great service. If you don’t have great service, we’re not meant for each other, and the lenders I already do business with all have great service. What I want is a great loan for this client that you can actually deliver on time. If you’ve got that, we may have some business. If you haven’t got that, we don’t. This point, incidentally, is one of the reasons you’ll end up with a better loan from a good brokerage than you will from the best lender. A broker knows how to shop loans better than any ordinary consumer.
This isn’t to say you should just trust a broker. Indeed, my point is that you shouldn’t trust anyone. Shop around, compare what’s available, ask them what for written guarantees, verify everything, and don’t give them your dollars to hold hostage until they’ve actually delivered. That’s why I put out the yardsticks for measuring performance I do, that’s why I give you the strategies for finding the people who will do a better job, and for forcing them to actually do a better job. You can’t know if something is a good bargain except by comparison with something else like it, or several somethings. Given the amount of legal wiggle room there is, unless you pin a loan officer or real estate agent down with specific guarantees and conditions in writing, what they actually deliver is completely dependent upon their good will. If they have good will, you don’t need to work nearly so hard, although comparison shopping would still be a really good idea. But if a decent proportion of agents and loan officers had goodwill, there would be a lot fewer problems with the industry.
Caveat Emptor
