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Geopolitics Weekly (Greenland, US-Taiwan Tariff Deal, Syria Offensive)
This week we examine how a rapidly evolving situation in Greenland could remake trans-Atlantic relations, details of the long-awaited US-Taiwan tariff deal, a shock government offensive that changed the map of Syria, and Canada’s efforts to thaw out its relations with China.
Latest Stories
Beyond Rules: How Washington’s New Realism is Forcing a Global Reset
The era of the bystander is over. In 2026, you are either at the table, on the lease, or in the way.
Shooting for the Stars with a Paper Airplane: The US-Pakistan Rare Earths Deal
The US-Pakistan rare earths deal looks like a win-win: the US diversifies its rare earth supply chain, Pakistan hedges on FDI. But the optics begin to strain when technological, regulatory, and security realities are considered.
Fit For Purpose? Why Global Alliances Are in Decline
Alliances are failing to fulfill their key function of preventing conflicts. Rather, they are devolving into sources of tension as the old rulebook of collective security no longer corresponds to global realities.
Trump’s Venezuela Gambit: The Limits of Shock Politics
Without stable, predictable governance and insurance companies willing to cover Venezuelan risks, tactical military success will not translate into sustained economic engagement.
Israel Strike Prospects on Iran in 2026: High-Risk Equilibria
The risk of a new round of Israeli strikes against Iran is shaped less by a discrete ‘decision’ than by an unstable equilibrium left unresolved by diplomacy, deterrence signaling, and regional de-escalation.
Geopolitics and Corruption Collide in EU/US Legal Reform Push in the Western Balkans
The amicable relationship between the Balkans and Western partners runs deep, yet efforts for reform continue to yield little positive change. One reason for this is the prioritization of enforcement optics and crackdowns on corruption over legal safeguards.
Why Venezuela’s Air Defenses Never Fired
The Venezuelan operation vividly illustrates how 21st century warfare is increasingly defined less as a clash of forces than as an asymmetric competition between decision architectures.
Thailand: The Frontline Nobody’s Watching
While Europe remains preoccupied with itself, a geopolitical buildup is taking shape in the Indo-Pacific that has long ceased to be mere war-gaming. The third act of the world order won't premiere in Brussels—but in Chumphon, Ranong, Subic Bay, Guam, and most importantly: Bangkok.
Maduro Is Gone. Venezuela’s Regime Remains
The removal of Nicolás Maduro may satisfy Washington’s appetite for decisive action, but it does not amount to regime change.
When America Walks Away, Asia Feels the Shockwaves
What happens when the principal architect of the post-war order begins quietly dismantling the scaffolding it once built?
Sheikh Maqsoud as a Test Case for Syria’s Unresolved Order
Sheikh Maqsoud, a diverse neighborhood in Aleppo, provides a microcosm for how sectarian conflict and institutional development might play out in Syria.
Canada’s China Gambit: Strategic Fantasy Meets Geopolitical Reality
Beijing is not a viable alternative to Washington and pretending otherwise represents a costly strategic error.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran Protest Crackdown, Venezuela Limbo, BRICS Plus Exercises)
This week we examine worsening protests across Iran, a state of geopolitical limbo descending over Venezuela, and a tentative step into hard power projection from the BRICS Plus bloc.
Russia’s Cyber Sanctuary in Transition: Implications for Global Cybercrime
Russia’s recent cybercrime enforcement activity is best understood not as a conventional law enforcement campaign, but as a geopolitical signal with second-order security effects.
From Negotiations to Mobilization in Ukraine
Despite the outward optics of negotiation, there’s only one direction that Putin will go: toward a full mobilization.
Venezuela: Chronicle of a Regime Change Foretold
Regime change in Venezuela is a game-changing development that will resonate across the geopolitics of the Americas. But it’s not without its risks.
The Post-Assad Revival of Syrian Jewry
After decades of pogroms, anti-Jewish government policies, and institutionalized antisemitism, new leadership has emerged in Syria that could help restore the Syrian Jewish community – but it won’t be easy.
Venezuela’s Loss, Guyana’s Strategic Opportunity
The geopolitical importance of Guyana has been underscored by the recent regime change in Venezuela.
Two New Year’s Addresses for a New Europe
First comes greater confidence and courage, then comes stability as Europe looks ahead to 2026.
Where Is Europe’s Reaction to France’s Ballistic Missile Project?
France’s plans for a domestic medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) program might be a source of national pride, but they could also be a point of contention with European partners and there are better alternatives available.
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Trump’s Venezuela Gambit: The Limits of Shock PoliticsSituation Reports - Jan 15, 2026Why Venezuela’s Air Defenses Never FiredSituation Reports - Jan 14, 2026Maduro Is Gone. Venezuela’s Regime RemainsOpinion - Jan 13, 2026Thailand: The Frontline Nobody’s WatchingSituation Reports - Jan 14, 2026Israel Strike Prospects on Iran in 2026: High-Risk EquilibriaSituation Reports - Jan 15, 2026Geopolitics Weekly (Iran Protest Crackdown, Venezuela Limbo, BRICS Plus Exercises)Forecasts - Jan 12, 2026From Negotiations to Mobilization in UkraineOpinion - Jan 09, 2026Lessons from the Ukraine WarOpinion - Dec 31, 2025China: An Ally Waiting for Russia’s Defeat?Situation Reports - Dec 22, 2025Beyond Rules: How Washington’s New Realism is Forcing a Global ResetOpinion - Jan 19, 2026Shooting for the Stars with a Paper Airplane: The US-Pakistan Rare Earths DealSituation Reports - Jan 19, 2026Narrative Tops Infrastructure in US-China RivalryOpinion - Dec 29, 2025Geopolitics Weekly (Ukraine Peace Talks, Poland Sabotage, Saudi F-35s)Forecasts - Nov 24, 2025The Taiwan Question and the Uneasy Calm of Southeast AsiaOpinion - Dec 11, 2025Prabowo and Albanese: Turning Ceremony into Accountable Security PartnershipOpinion - Nov 27, 2025South China Sea Dispute: VietnamBackgrounders - Sep 12, 2025Fit For Purpose? Why Global Alliances Are in DeclineOpinion - Jan 16, 2026US National Security Strategy: Africa Debuts as a Global PlayerSituation Reports - Dec 12, 2025Drone Warfare Over Sudan: The “Siege from the Air”Opinion - Oct 14, 2025Cheap, Accurate, Lethal: Laser-Guided Rockets Are Reshaping Global Air DefenseSituation Reports - Oct 14, 2025China–India Rapprochement and Its Strategic Implications for AfghanistanSituation Reports - Oct 17, 2025Your subscription will cancel on the renewal date and you will not be billed again. Should you change your mind, you can resubscribe after the current term is up.Keep Pace with a Changing WorldSign up to our mailing list for weekly reports and discounted subscription rates.Keep Pace with a Changing WorldSign up to our mailing list for weekly reports and discounted subscription rates.
