The Gatecrashers and AD Predicts Crash the Party
2026 Oscars: 26th Annual No Guts, No Glory for the 98th Oscars!
Cinema Audio Society Announces Nominees
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Predict the Oscar Nominees Contest – Fixed
We had a snafu with the contest where the Animated Feature category was left off. It seemed too late to add it once the contest was going, but I added it now with an "optional" on there, so we will hand out two winners, the high scores without Animated Feature and one with. If you'd like to enter, you can do so here. Sorry about that!
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2026 Oscar Predictions: Locking in Our Final Predictions On Oscar Nomination’s Eve
ENTER OUR CONTEST HERE The story of the American film industry will be told tomorrow morning when the Oscars are announced. After over 26 years predicting the Oscars, I feel somewhat melancholy over what the game has become. It feels more rigged this year, or these past few years, than it ever has. When we seem to be debating the fifth slot in nearly every category, where the SAG and DGA matched for the first time ever (or since 2004, more or less) you know that something significant has changed. Netflix has announced that the Matt Damon/Ben Affleck film The Rip debuted on the app with 41 million views. That is supposed to somehow...
The Gatecrashers and AD Predicts Crash the Party
You might notice on down the page the predictions for AD Predicts, a select group of Oscarwatchers who curate their predictions. You can check them out here: And The Gate Crashers are still at it, with a ragtag group of revolutionaries who are free thinkers and exiles out here on the Wild Wild Web. You can view all of the predictions here (not that there is a whole lot of difference between these groups -- it's mostly a predictable year, as it...
2026 Oscars: 26th Annual No Guts, No Glory for the 98th Oscars!
As readers of this site know, we've been doing No Guts, No Glory for a while now. It's the one thing other sites haven't taken from this site, as far as I know. Maybe they have. But either way, you have three picks and make them wild and unpredictable, not alternates. Here are ours. Sasha Stone 1. Yorgos Lanthimos in for Best Director (stole from Jeremy) 2. Joel Edgerton in for Best Actor, Ethan Hawke out. 3. Cynthia Erivo in for Best...
2026 Oscars: Frontrunners and Challengers Podcast – Final Oscar Predictions
We'll be posting our final Oscar predictions tomorrow but we thought we'd talk it through in a podcast, with Sasha Stone, Scott Kernen and Jeremy Jentzen. If you're interested, have a listen.
Cinema Audio Society Announces Nominees
I'm sorry this was so late but I had to take my mother in for eye surgery. My apologies. From Variety. Here you go: MOTION PICTURES – LIVE ACTION “F1: The Movie” Production Sound Mixer – Gareth John Re-Recording Mixer – Gary A. Rizzo CAS Re-Recording Mixer – Juan Peralta Scoring Mixer – Alan Meyerson CAS ADR Mixer – Alan Freedman CAS Foley Mixer – Dennis Leonard “Frankenstein” Production Sound Mixer – Greg Chapman Re-Recording Mixer – Brad Zoern CAS Re-Recording Mixer...
2026 Oscar Predictions: Predicting The Pesky Shorts
Picking the right five in each of the short categories is the hardest part of Oscar predicting, especially this year when the Oscars, but for a choice here or there, feel fairly predictable. What I have found is that watching them doesn't really make much of a difference, because we are talking about a consensus vote, not any one person's individual taste. Here are the rules: For Live Action Short films, all active members are allowed to vote on both the shortlists...
Nextgen Oscarwatcher: The Final Predictions
With precursors (both major and minor) largely wrapped up, it's time to put the pencils down and take our final shots at predicting the Oscar nominations. It's never straightforward, but after years of doing this, we've gotten used to the uncertainty. Let's dive into the above-the-line categories. Best Picture A strong consensus has emerged from the Critics Choice, Producers Guild, Golden Globes, and AFI Top 10, pointing to eight films that feel essentially locked for the expanded 10-slot lineup: One Battle After...
2026 Oscars: “This is Me Before Hamnet …. This is Me After”
I have never stood up in my living room and applauded a film before. But I did just that when I watched Hamnet. I didn't capture this reaction on video and put it on TikTok, but I'm telling you it happened. I stood up and said, "Bravo, Chloé Zhao! BRAVO! Bravo, Jessie Buckley! Bravo, Paul Mescal!" I have never done that before. I probably will never do it again. I don't know exactly why I was moved beyond words to the point...
Sentimental Value Dominates European Film Awards
From The Playlist: Best European Film AFTERNOONS OF SOLITUDE (Spain, France) doc Directed by Albert Serra ARCO (France) animation Directed by Ugo Bienvenu DOG OF GOD (U.S) animation Directed by Raitis Ābele & Lauris Ābele FIUME O MORTE! (Croatia, Slovenia, Italy) doc Directed by Igor Bezinović IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (UN SIMPLE ACCIDENT) (France, Iran, Luxembourg) Directed by Jafar Panahi LITTLE AMELIE animation Directed by Maïlys Vallade & Liane-Cho Han OLIVIA AND THE INVISIBLE EARTHQUAKE animation Directed by Irene Iborra Rizo RIEFENSTAHL (Germany) documentary Directed by Andres...
2026 Oscar Predictions: Will the Best Screenplays Drive the Best Picture Win?
There have been some brilliantly written screenplays this year that are likely to be nominated. Will Tracy's script for Bugonia is one. Ari Aster's for Eddington is another (although it's not likely to get nominated, though it should be). The Best Picture nominees bring their screenplays with them as most are written by their directors, like One Battle After Another, Hamnet and Sinners. The question is whether a film can win Best Picture with just a screenplay and not Best Director. We...
Oscars 2026: Can Focus Features Land Three in the Best Actress Race? [POLL!]
The Best Actress race seems sewn up with Jessie Buckley as the frontrunner. Her only competition would be the Golden Globe winner, Rose Byrne, for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. That is 100% down to the dominance of the film critics over the Oscar race with the public mostly taken out of it. Ah, but actors can sometimes see what critics and industry voters can't. That might be how Kate Hudson ended up with a SAG nomination for Song Sung...
Oscar Nomination Predictions
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1.
94.7%One Battle After Another
-
2.
89.5%Sinners
-
3.
89.5%Hamnet
-
4.
89.5%Marty Supreme
-
5.
89.5%Sentimental Value
-
6.
84.2%Frankenstein
-
7.
81.6%The Secret Agent
-
8.
71.1%Bugonia
-
9.
57.9%It Was Just an Accident
-
10.
68.4%Train Dreams
-
1.
89.5%Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
-
2.
84.2%Ryan Coogler, Sinners
-
3.
86.8%Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
-
4.
57.9%Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
-
5.
50%Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
-
1.
84.2%Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
-
2.
84.2%Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
-
3.
76.3%Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
-
4.
78.9%Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
-
5.
73.7%Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
-
1.
86.8%Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
-
2.
84.2%Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
-
3.
81.6%Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
-
4.
63.2%Emma Stone, Bugonia
-
5.
50%Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
-
1.
84.2%Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
-
2.
81.6%Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
-
3.
81.6%Paul Mescal, Hamnet
-
4.
73.7%Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
-
5.
71.1%Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
-
1.
84.2%Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
-
2.
81.6%Amy Madigan, Weapons
-
3.
68.4%Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
-
4.
68.4%Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
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5.
34.2%Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
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Producers Guild nominations*
BAFTA longlist*
Cinematographers Society Awards*
Directors Guild Awards*
Screen Actors Guild Awards*
Golden Globes Win+/Nom*
Critics Choice win+/nom*
Best PictureOne Battle After Another++*****
Hamnet *+****
Sinners*******
Frankenstein*******
Marty Supreme*******
Bugonia**
Sentimental Value****
Train Dreams***
Weapons*
It Was Just An Accident*
The Secret Agent*
Blue Moon*
Nouvelle Vague*
No Other Choice*
Jay Kelly*
Wicked: For Good*
The Ballad of Wallis Island*
Nuremberg*
I Swear*
Best Actor Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme++*
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another***
Wagner Maura, The Secret Agent*+
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners***
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon***
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams**
George Clooney, Jay Kelly*
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine*
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: DMFN*
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein*
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia*
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice*
Best ActressJessie Buckley, Hamnet++*
Emma Stone, Bugonia***
Rose Byrne, If I had Legs I'd Kick You***
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another***
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value**
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue**
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee**
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good*
Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love*
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt*
Eva Victor, Sorry Baby*
Best Supporting Actor Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value*+
Jacob Elordi Frankenstein+**
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another***
Paul Mescal, Hamnet***
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another***
Miles Caton, Sinners*
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly**
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Jason Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen Deliver Me From Nowhere
Billy Crudup, Jay Kelly
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked For Good
Damson Idris, F1: The Movie
Javier Bardem, F1: The Movie
Best Supporting Actress Teyana Taylor, One Battle*+*
Amy Madigan, Weapons+**
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good***
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners**
Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme*
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value**
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value**
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine*
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Felicity Jones, Train Dreams
Best DirectorPaul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another++*
Ryan Coogler, Sinners***
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet***
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme**
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein***
Joaquim Trier, Sentimental Value**
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident*
Zach Cregger, Weapons
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Jon Chu, Wicked: For Good
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Benny Safdie, The Smashing Machine
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Scott Cooper, Springsteen: DMFN
Joseph Kosinski, F1: The Movie
Alex Garland, Warfare
Adapted ScreenplayPaul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another++
Chloé Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell, Hamnet**
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams*
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice*
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein*
Will Tracy, Bugonia*
Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Original Screenplay Ryan Coogler, Sinners+*
Joaquim Trier, Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value**
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident*
Zach Cregger, Weapons*
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer, Jay Kelly*
Eva Victor, Sorry Baby*
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme*
Benny Safdie, The Smashing Machine
Nora Garrett, After the Hunt
Ari Aster, Eddington
Cinematography Sinners**
One Battle After Another**
Frankenstein**
Train Dreams+*
Marty Supreme*
Hamnet*
Bugonia
Wicked: For Good
Ballad of a Small Player
F1: The Movie*
Die My Love
Nouvelle Vague
Sentimental Value
Sirât
Song Sung Blue
Sound of Falling
Wicked: For Good
Best Editing Marty Supreme*
One Battle After Another*
A House of Dynamite*
The Perfect Neighbor*
F1: The Movie+
Sinners*
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Bugonia
Warfare
Production Design Frankenstein+
Sinners*
Hamnet*
Marty Supreme*
Fantastic Four*
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Wicked: For Good*
Bugonia
Train Dreams
Snow White
Jurassic World Rebirth
Sound Mixing + EditingF1: The Movie+
Sinners*
One Battle After Another*
Frankenstein*
Sirât*
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: DMFW
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Superman
Costumes Frankenstein+
Hamnet*
Hedda*
Sinners*
Kiss of the Spider Woman*
Wicked: For Good*
The Testament of Ann Lee
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Thunderbolts*
Visual Effects Avatar: Fire and Ash+
Frankenstein*
Sinners*
F1 *
Superman*
How to Train Your Dragon
Wicked: For Good
The Electric State
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Tron: Ares
Wicked: For Good
Original ScoreSinners++
Hamnet**
Frankenstein**
One Battle After Another**
Sirat*
F1: The Movie**
Wicked: For Good
Marty Supreme*
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Bugonia
Captain America: Brave New World
Diane Warren: Relentless
Hedda
A House of Dynamite
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
Sirât
Train Dreams
Tron: Ares
Truth and Treason
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Original Song Golden, KPop Demon Hunters++
Dream as One, Avatar Fire and Ash*
I Lied to You, Sinners**
Train Dreams, Train Dreams**
The Girl in the Bubble, Wicked: For Good**
No Place Like Home, Wicked: For Good*
Drive, F1*
As Alive As You Need Me To Be from Tron: Ares
Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless
Dying To Live from Billy Idol Should Be Dead
Highest 2 Lowest from Highest 2 Lowest
Last Time (I Seen The Sun) from Sinners
Our Love from The Ballad of Wallis Island
Salt Then Sour Then Sweet from Come See Me in the Good Light
Sweet Dreams Of Joy from Viva Verdi!
Makeup and HairFrankenstein+
Sinners*
The Smashing Machine*
Wicked: For Good*
The Alto Knights
Kokuho
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
One Battle after Another
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Casting Sinners+
One Battle After Another*
Hamnet*
Marty Supreme*
Wicked: For Good*
Frankenstein
The Secret Agent
Sirât
Weapons
Animated FeatureKpop Demon Hunters++
Zootopia 2**
Arco**
Demon Slayer*
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain**
Elio**
In Your Dreams*
Ne Zha 2
Lilo & Stitch
Paddington in Peru
Documentary FeatureThe Alabama Solution
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Coexistence, My Ass!
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cover-Up
Cutting through Rocks
Folktales
Holding Liat
Mr. Nobody against Putin
Mistress Dispeller
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
Seeds
2000 Meters to Andriivka
Yanuni
International FeatureSentimental Value (Norway)*
The Secret Agent (Brazil)++
It Was Just An Accident (France)**
No Other Choice (South Korea)**
Sirât (Spain)**
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)*
Left-Handed Girl*
Belén (Aregentina)*
Sound of Falling (Germany)
Homebound (India)
The President’s Cake (Iraq)
Kokuho (Japan)
All That’s Left of You (Jordan)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Palestine 36 (Palestine)
Late Shift (Switzerland)
Live Action ShortAdo
Amarela
Beyond Silence
The Boy with White Skin
Butcher’s Stain
Butterfly on a Wheel
Dad’s Not Home
Extremist
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
Pantyhose
The Pearl Comb
Rock, Paper, Scissors
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Documentary ShortAll the Empty Rooms
All the Walls Came Down
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Bad Hostage
Cashing Out
Chasing Time
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
Classroom 4
The Devil Is Busy
Heartbeat
Last Days on Lake Trinity
On Healing Land, Birds Perch
Perfectly a Strangeness
Rovina’s Choice
We Were the Scenery
Animated Short Autokar
Butterfly
Cardboard
Éiru
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Hurikán
I Died in Irpin
The Night Boots
Playing God
The Quinta's Ghost
Retirement Plan
The Shyness of Trees
Snow Bear
The Three Sisters
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