My friend Ombudsben runs a pool every season in which we pick the league-wide order-of-finish for all the teams in the majors. Bettors are assigned points for how far off they are on each team. For example, if I pick the Yankees to finish at the top of the AL and they finish third, I get two points (3-1=2). The participant with fewest points wins the pool. I won the pool two years ago, but not last season (despite picking the Rays to finish with the fifth-best record in the AL). I thought this year, I’d share my picks, all of which were made on April 5.
Let’s make something clear: There is method to my madness. I go about this by predicting runs scored and allowed for each team, and the records are simply a function of that. I make some minor adjustments to correct for rounding errors and the possible impact of a particularly strong or weak bullpen, but for the most part, I’m concerned with runs. We simply don’t have much evidence that outside the effect of a bullpen, teams can distribute their runs in a way that gives them a leg up on the Pythagorean formula. So my predictions, and my evaluations of them, focus on runs. Nailing a team’s record, but being off by 70 runs of differential is a bug, not a feature.
We’ll start with the American League, where, in the East, once again we have the three best teams fighting for the two playoff spots that go with the division title and the wild card. In the AL Central, all five teams have reasonable hope. In the AL West, three teams have a decent chance to make the post-season. When at least 11 of 14 teams have statistically reasonable chances of making the playoffs, you can’t call it parity because of those beasts in the East, but you can call it entertaining.
I expect us to see a milder West in 2009. Although the Angels won 100 games last season, that was in no small part because of them outperforming their expected finish by 13 games. Operate from that starting point, delete Mark Teixeira, and anticipate a good amount of lost ground from the pitching staff – especially Joe Saunders, but also from a bullpen that helped the Angels finish an MLB-best 31-21 in one-run games – and you’ve got a .500 ball club. I think that lets the Athletics nose slightly ahead with a much-improved offense, but questions about their rotation and health will make for two teams with bids fragile enough that the Mariners could sneak into the picture.
The Central’s fun because it’s tight. From the Indians’ projected 86 wins to the Royals’ last-place tally of 75, there is no division quite so competitive top to bottom. The Indians’ bid would be a lot more secure if they could guarantee big bouncebacks from Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, not to mention a completely ready Matt LaPorta, to give their lineup some big bats behind Grady Sizemore. Run prevention is a source of concern. Does anyone know what comes next for Cliff Lee, let alone Fausto Carmona? Will Kerry Wood provide stability for the bullpen? The Indians look like a mediocre contender on my list below, but there’s enough upside play to make the Tribe the one team in the Central with a solid shot at 90 wins.
For the rest, the Tigers’ decision to copy the Rays and go for an infield makeover keeps them closest to the Tribe, but here again, questions over which starters they can count on make them an unpredictable commodity. It’s for that reason that the White Sox and Twins can make sustained plays for the title – both teams have quality at the front end of their rotations that could propel either back to the postseason. If the White Sox get good work from Jose Contreras and/or Bartolo Colon to give their power-driven lineup enough winnable ballgames, the Sox might have the laugh on me. If the Twins can find a way to shore up one of the league’s weaker offenses, they’re also in the hunt, although losing Joe Mauer early reflects how little the franchise has to go on once you get past a few key hitters. The Royals become least-likely because they have problems on both sides of the ball. Getting more offense from slow-developing sluggers like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler could compensate for the shortcomings of Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs as middle-of-the-order power sources.
Which brings us to the East, where three teams enter, but only two teams leave. Which one gets left behind? The cream of the league is so tightly grouped that it’s easy to envision play-in games after the regular season, and all three teams can already be second-guessed. Going without an A-Rod replacement during his injury-induced absence? Sending down David Price? Missing Manny? Where the Rays have a young team built to last and the Red Sox have a core of talent that should be shored up in-season with reinforcements, the Yankees have to hope this year’s bought-and-paid-for team gels fast. With this winter’s gig-ticket free agents added to aging pillars Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte, can they make my expectation that theirs is the game’s best pitching staff stand up? If A. J. Burnett comes up short or Joba Chamberlain breaks down, you can kiss that league-best record good-bye, see another Bomber-free October, and watch for the long knives in the Bronx.
Even the teams you have to feel for have reasons to feel good. While the Blue Jays and Orioles are doomed to the bottom of baseball’s best division, both feature worthwhile prospects worth following – starting off with Matt Wieters in Baltimore and Travis Snider in Toronto – with more to come at the end of the season. The Orioles and Rangers can’t really anticipate changing fortunes until two of the best collections of young pitching anywhere in baseball begin to come up towards the end of the season, while the Jays have to hope another season squandered on long-term deals with offensive mediocrities doesn’t whittle down what interest remains in any pitching staff that can boast Doc Halladay’s latest bid for a Cy Young award.
AL W-L RS RA
Yankees 99-63 801 634
Red Sox 95-67 846 715
Rays 94-68 814 690
Indians 86-76 818 774
Athletics 84-78 781 755
Angels 81-81 777 777
Tigers 80-82 789 802
Mariners 77-85 719 753
Blue Jays 76-86 713 755
White Sox 76-86 779 828
Twins 76-86 746 792
Royals 75-87 737 792
Orioles 75-87 822 891
Rangers 70-92 795 909
Tools of Ignorance, a Giants Baseball Blog 