Background checks connected to firearms sales declined again last month, even on the busiest shopping day of the year.

Black Friday week saw about 530,000 gun background checks, according to an industry analysis published this week. That’s down about 80,000 or 13.6 percent from the same period last year. Black Friday itself saw the FBI process 165,183 applications through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which is down from the all-time Black Friday record of 214,913 set in 2023.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), an industry trade group, reported on Tuesday that NICS checks related specifically to gun sales were down for all of November. Last month saw 1,408,230 such checks, a seven percent year-over-year decline.

The downturn continues an industry losing streak that dates back to the pandemic, where sales-related checks saw an unprecedented spike. A combination of low consumer confidence and relatively little concern over new gun bans during the new Trump Administration has continued to weaken demand. While sales remained elevated above pre-pandemic levels for years following the 2020 peak, they have begun to dip below that line in 2025–even briefly falling below the key million-per-month line over the summer slow period.

Still, the industry argued that demand remains relatively strong compared to historical trends.

“The background checks reported by the FBI are in keeping with the trends NSSF has seen throughout the year,” Joe Bartozzi, NSSF President and CEO, said in a statement. “While the overall trends are still coming off the peaks experienced in recent years, firearm sales remain consistently strong.”

While the FBI reports raw NICS numbers that incorporate every check run through the system, like the Black Friday report, NSSF analyzes that data to remove checks for things like gun-carry permits. Its report gives a closer estimate for actual gun sales.

That estimate isn’t a perfect one-to-one count of all gun sales, though. Federal law doesn’t require NICS checks on sales that aren’t done by licensed dealers, like used gun sales on the secondary market. Additionally, as NSSF notes, some states allow people with certain permits to bypass NICS checks on gun sales.

“Twenty-eight states currently have at least one qualified alternative permit, which under the Brady Act allows the permit-holder, who has undergone a background check to obtain the permit, to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer without a separate additional background check for that transfer,” the group said. “The number of NICS checks in these states does not include these legal transfers based on qualifying permits and NSSF does not adjust for these transfers.”

Still, the NSSF numbers are widely considered among the best gauges for gun sales. That’s because every licensed gun dealer has to conduct NICS checks on sales to customers, and all new guns are first sold through licensed dealers. Licensed dealers also encompass much of the secondary market, too, especially since over a dozen states require residents to make all gun transfers through licensed dealers.

December has traditionally seen the highest demand for gun sales of the year, but 2025 is on track to see the lowest level of sales-related NICS checks in at least half a decade.