The Baltimore Orioles have signed Madison Mallards legend Pete Alonso to a 5-year contract. $155 million. The biggest deal since (ulp) Chris Davis. He’ll wear Rafael Palmeiro and Anthony Santander’s #25. And Jay Gibbons’.
The fanbase is over the moon that we finally signed somebody. I get it, after so many years with no big contracts. But I also don’t get it. One of the Orioles podcasters I listen to said “This guy gets you 40, maybe 50 home runs a year.” Does he? Last year he hit 38, the year before that 34. He’s hit 50 once and only once, his rookie year in 2019. He does hit home runs! More than anybody else on the Orioles. But beyond that? He sorta kinda gets on base and he’s a terrible defensive first baseman. He’s not likely to be the Orioles’ best player. He would have been third best last year, after Gunnar Henderson and Trevor Rogers. A team whose best player is Pete Alonso is not a contending team.
And yet, for all this, I’m cheered by this deal. There is no Mookie Betts or Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani to sign right now. And the Orioles with Alonso are incrementally better than the Orioles without Alonso. What you have to do to be good, in 2025, is be willing to spend a lot of money to incrementally improve your team, with guys, who, if not superstars, are at least plausible regular stars. The Orioles have not been willing to do that for a long time, and now, maybe, they are.
Also, of course, the team now has five guys, Rutschmann, Basallo, Mountcastle, Mayo, and Alonso who are limited to three positions, C,1B,DH. Alonso being here means one or more of Mountcastle and Mayo probably get traded for pitching. So if you spend the money to get Alonso playing every day at 1B (and one thing I’ll say for the guy, he does play every day) the improvement over Mayo playing there every day maybe isn’t that great; but if instead of Mayo sitting on the bench you turn him into a #2 or #3 starter, now you’re starting to get some real value for your $31m a year. (You know, now that we have more righthanded punch in the lineup, does Taylor Ward become a trade chip for pitching? Maybe we could talk to the Angels, they have a young guy Grayson Rodriguez with a spotty injury history but a lot of upside…)
But look, even if we do add pitching: you take the players on the 2025 Orioles, you add a poor defender who wears #25 and hits 40 HR and an ace starting pitcher, and you know what you have? The 2024 Orioles. Who were not that great! We did the tank, we did the rebuild, we have most of an entire lineup of players who were high draft picks and blue-chip prospects just a few years ago. If those guys play like they were supposed to play, this is a really good team. If they play like they played in 2025, $155m is not gonna help.