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Comments for Hypothesis Testing
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com
Just another WordPress.com weblog
Mon, 27 Jun 2016 02:51:31 +0000
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Comment on Be Cautious Using Price Indices by aaron
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2014/03/24/be-cautious-using-price-indices/#comment-1478
Mon, 27 Jun 2016 02:51:31 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=486#comment-1478
An analogy I like to use with money is it’s often like the dye for an MRI or CAT scan. Boosting money supply will tell you the dynamics are, what takes it up fast, slow, or that it doesn’t event reach. It is very rare and unlikely that this injection also has a medicinal effect.
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Comment on Temperature data, Internally Consistent Beliefs, and Data bias by UAH version 6 may not be so bad after all | Hypothesis Testing
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/temperature-data-internally-consistent-beliefs-and-data-bias/#comment-1381
Sun, 08 Nov 2015 09:18:49 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=365#comment-1381
[…] In my previous post, I questioned the reliability of UAH’s revision of its dataset for its most recent version of the Lower Tropospheric Temperature anomaly. I never did hear back from Roy about the issues that I raised that made me think the new adjustments were resulting in a flawed product that was in fact inferior for accurate trend assessment over the long term to the previous version of the dataset. But a recent assessment I have done suggests to me I was perhaps too hasty in concluding UAH was now biased for trend assessment, at least over the long term. Specifically, I revisited an earlier analysis I did. […]
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Comment on Has UAH’s new method made v6.0 inferior? by UAH version 6 may not be so bad after all | Hypothesis Testing
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2015/05/03/has-uahs-new-method-made-v6-0-inferior/#comment-1380
Sun, 08 Nov 2015 09:18:46 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=492#comment-1380
[…] Just another WordPress.com weblog « Has UAH’s new method made v6.0 inferior? […]
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Comment on The Curious Case of NOAA-12 by Has UAH’s new method made v6.0 inferior? | Hypothesis Testing
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/the-curious-case-of-noaa-12/#comment-1338
Sun, 03 May 2015 00:53:10 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=434#comment-1338
[…] previously discussed how RSS appears to have a serious drift problem associated with NOAA-12, and the period during […]
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Comment on Temperature data, Internally Consistent Beliefs, and Data bias by manicbeancounter
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/temperature-data-internally-consistent-beliefs-and-data-bias/#comment-1320
Wed, 11 Feb 2015 21:09:36 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=365#comment-1320
This is a blog post I like – reconciling one set of data to another. In doing so, we can learn something.
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Comment on Be Cautious Using Price Indices by Estimating The State of Labor Markets (Unemployment Statistics vs. Economic Realities) | Time to Choose Again
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2014/03/24/be-cautious-using-price-indices/#comment-1269
Mon, 10 Nov 2014 04:21:31 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=486#comment-1269
[…] Using my estimates of the private economy and it’s deviation from it’s long term trend, accounting for mismeasured inflation during WWII, based on the relationship between the two: I chose a quadratic curve to prevent the formula from […]
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Comment on Climate Cycle, Meet Business Cycle-Preliminaries by Estimating The State of Labor Markets (Unemployment Statistics vs. Economic Realities) | Time to Choose Again
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/climate-cycle-meet-business-cycle-preliminaries/#comment-1268
Mon, 10 Nov 2014 04:21:29 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=482#comment-1268
[…] of the unemployment rate during that period. I used such relationships with investment and the the private economy’s deviation from long term trend, to estimate, with a multiplicative adjustment, and an additive adjustment, what the unemployment […]
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Comment on Climate Cycle, Meet Business Cycle-Preliminaries by Be Cautious Using Price Indices | Hypothesis Testing
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/climate-cycle-meet-business-cycle-preliminaries/#comment-439
Mon, 24 Mar 2014 15:39:54 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=482#comment-439
[…] Just another WordPress.com weblog « Climate Cycle, Meet Business Cycle-Preliminaries […]
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Comment on Can you isolate a volcanic temperature signal in the temperature data? by Climate Cycle, Meet Business Cycle-Preliminaries | Hypothesis Testing
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2013/11/07/can-you-isolate-a-volcanic-temperature-signal-in-the-temperature-data/#comment-407
Mon, 03 Mar 2014 20:51:39 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=332#comment-407
[…] might conceivably represent a short term variation. So I want a highly aggressive filter. Oh say, I’ve got that. Specifically, I take the following steps: I take the growth rate year over year, for each year […]
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Comment on Back of the Envelope Estimate of Emissions Reduction Due to the “Great Recession” by Climate Cycle, Meet Business Cycle-Preliminaries | Hypothesis Testing
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2013/12/08/back-of-the-envelope-estimate-of-emissions-reduction-due-to-the-great-recession/#comment-406
Mon, 03 Mar 2014 20:51:37 +0000
https://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/?p=373#comment-406
[…] As before, I will use US GDP data, with the portion representing Government spending removed, to represent actual meaningful production. Except this time, I really want more data than just back to 1890, so I use simple method to estimate the state and local spending from the federal spending: from 1890-2013, there is a correlation between a change in federal spending as a fraction of GDP and a change in federal spending as a fraction of total spending-the correlation is better in later years, so one should be a little bit weary of extending it back in time. But let’s proceed with reckless abandon nonetheless. The main purpose is to properly restrict what are mostly war spikes to increases inĀ federal spending. I can use this relationship to estimate how much of the total government spending before 1890 was made up of federal spending and how much state and local spending. One can then use the estimated fraction, federal/totgov, with the actual federal spending, to get an estimate of total government spending in years before 1890. Anyway, this is what that fraction looks like, with the estimated portion highlighted: […]
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