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Wages of Wins Journal
https://dberri.wordpress.com
Taking aim at the lies and damned lies in sports with stories written by the numbers.Mon, 21 Nov 2011 02:58:29 +0000en
hourly
1 https://wordpress.com/https://s0.wp.com/i/buttonw-com.pngWages of Wins Journal
https://dberri.wordpress.com
We’re Moving!
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/were-moving/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/were-moving/#commentsMon, 21 Nov 2011 02:58:29 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6988Continue reading →]]>Hey all,
We’re moving the blog to https://wagesofwins.com in the near term. At some point we’ll just make sure this blog redirects there. However we have five years of material including almost 1600 posts and 800 images, so it will take some time to fully migrate. Until that happens we’ll be leaving this blog up as is. If you want to be ahead of the curve and avoid redirects though, you should update your RSS readers and bookmarks to https://wagesofwins.com
One of the benefits to the migration is that we’re able to put cooler imagery in our posts. Check our our first post at our new address-
The Win Exchange Rate – Arturo looks at how the value of a win in the NBA varies by market.
If that’s not enough to make you happy how about this? In honor of the lockout we have all of the Wins Produced numbers since the last lockout through last season up!
Thanks so much for your patience while we do this.
-Dre
]]>https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/were-moving/feed/1nerdnumbersWhy Owners are worse than they think they are
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/why-owner/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/why-owner/#commentsFri, 18 Nov 2011 06:59:54 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6814Continue reading →]]>I was watching a great talk from Christopher Chabris, author of The Invisible Gorilla and Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us. As with other scientists who study the brain, he revealed our brains may not work as well as we think they do. Some of his points actually explain how NBA management, despite being full of successful business people and former players, can be as bad as it is. It breaks down to two simple truths:
We’re bad at judging our own abilities
Being good at one thing does not mean we’re good at everything.
We’re Bad at Judging Our Own Abilities
Check out the video at 42:30 to see the specifics on this.
When analyzing basketball players a common theme comes up. People say it is hard to get a real objective measure of a player because of different variables and intangibles including:
Clutch
Leadership
Different Teams
Defense
etc.
While I feel that these factors are overestimated, it’s true that basketball is not played in a vacuum. Let’s consider instead the gold standard of rating systems: chess. Chess is a one-on-one game. The rating system adjusts for your skill and the skill of your opponents and estimates your odds of winning against any given opponent. In short, the chess rating system is what we dream of when we look at pro sports. So what happens when you ask chess players about this perfect in a vacuum rating system?
They estimate that they are twice as good as they really are!
Yes, when you ask chess players to rank themselves, it turns out that they think they would win against themselves twice as often as their rating says. This feature of human cognition is especially important in a competitive field: most management thinks they are better than they really are. This explains how so many can be upset at their inability to win or make money–they think they should be making more or winning more because they aren’t good at judging themselves. Dave Berri has also pointed out that former players when given management roles may overvalue their old skills and look for similar players (with disastrous effects)
Good at One Thing Does Not Mean Good At Everything
Check out the video at 44:00 to see specifics on this.
Chabris performed an experiment in which participants were asked to draw a diagram of a bike. Many people failed miserably at this. More impressive was that even the people who rode their bike every day still had problems with the task. Likewise, players might assume that because they played ball for ten years they’ll be good at management. Owners might assume because they ran a successful company that running a team will be easy. But all the evidence indicates that it just doesn’t work that way. Being an expert at one aspect of something does not mean you’ll be great at related but different tasks. What’s worse is that your experience will cause you to overrate your skills in the related field!
Why This is Bad
These problems are not unique to chess players or NBA owners. The general trend in behavioral economics is that we have many flaws that prevent us from acting rationally. Normally when people are bad at judging their abilities it’s not a problem. If a chess player says they are twice as good as their rating it doesn’t mean they win more often. If an avid bike rider tries to get a job as a bike mechanic they’ll probably be shown the door without more training. However, with the owners things are different. When they fail, rather than leave, they have the option of being destructive. They can lock out the league and demand rule changes that may be detrimental in the long run. So the lesson is that we shouldn’t let the people making the decisions also be the people to judge those decisions. Unfortunately in the NBA that is exactly what has happened and as a result we all lose.
-Dre
]]>https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/why-owner/feed/6michael-jordan-bikesnerdnumbersThe All-Time Spurs Team
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/the-all-time-spurs-team/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/the-all-time-spurs-team/#commentsThu, 17 Nov 2011 07:54:12 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6962Continue reading →]]>Back again to list my starting five and sixth man for the San Antonio Spurs. Basic rules:
Pick any player that played one or more complete seasons for the Spurs from 1978 on
Pick players based on their “prime” or top three complete seasons with the Spurs
Pick the best player for each position as well as a sixth man.
With that here are your all-time Spurs!
Point Guard – Johnny Moore
Wins Produced: 38.7
WP48: 0.247
Minutes Played: 7535
Top Seasons: 1982, 1983 and 1985
Johnny Moore was putting up over ten assists and almost three steals for the first half of the 80s. Sadly by 1986 he had started fading. Still, he is easily the best point guard the Spurs have seen and an easy pick for my team.
Shooting Guard – Manu Ginobili
Wins Produced: 43.6
WP48: 0.322
Minutes Played: 6509
Top Seasons: 2007, 2008 and 2010
Manu averages over 20 points on 58% true shooting to go along with over five assists and five rebounds per thirty six minutes. My only complaint is his playing time, which has been far too low for his production. Manu has been under-appreciated his whole career, which is why he was an easy pick ahead of a few other shooting guard greats in the Spurs history.
Small Forward – Dennis Rodman
Wins Produced: 46.7
WP48: 0.492
Minutes Played: 4557
Top Seasons: 1994 and 1995
Dennis Rodman only lasted two seasons in San Antonio. That said they were amazing seasons where Rodman focused on what he did best: rebounding. He did this while keeping his fouls and turnovers low and his shooting percentage high. He was also versatile enough to play both the small and power forward so I’ve bumped him down to add him to my team.
Power Forward – Tim Duncan
Wins Produced: 69.8
WP48: 0.363
Minutes Played: 9236
Top Seasons: 2002, 2003 and 2007
No surprises here. His three top seasons earned him two MVPs and two titles. The Spurs have gotten two of the greatest number one picks in the history of the draft. Tim Duncan has kept the Spurs a contender his entire career. We’ll have to see how much longer he can keep it up.
Center – David Robinson
Wins Produced: 80.4
WP48: 0.423
Minutes Played: 9116
Top Seasons: 1990, 1991 and 1996
I hope I don’t surprise anyone by saying not only is Robinson the greatest center the Spurs have ever seen, he is also the greatest Spur the Spurs have ever seen. You’ll notice one of Robinson’s accomplishments is that he was great right from his rookie season. What else can I say about a guy that could bring down 30 points, 13 rebounds and over four blocks a night without breaking a sweat?
Sixth Man – George Gervin
Wins Produced: 44.3
WP48: 0.245
Minutes Played: 8679
Top Seasons: 1978, 1979 and 1980
There was no way I could leave the Ice Man off the list. One of our pet peeves around here is players rewarded for high points on poor shooting. As such George Gervin is definitely a favorite as he was pulling down close to 30 points a night on great shooting.
Sixth Man – Artis Gilmore
Wins Produced: 44.0
WP48: 0.278
Minutes Played: 7587
Top Seasons: 1983, 1984, 1985
On most teams being a center putting up numbers like Gilmore did and you’re the starter without question. On the Spurs Gilmore is demoted to the bench. I couldn’t decide between Gervin and Gilmore and decided to throw them both on the team. Gilmore is another favorite as he put up numbers like Kareem did in the 80s but didn’t get the recognition. Well here you go Gilmore.
Summing Up
These are a lot of fun and I may keep doing them if the lockout persists and there’s fan interest. As we’ve mentioned the lockout has definitely let us talk a lot about tax rules and competitive balance but we do enjoy straight up basketball. If you’ve got any interesting stats stories you’d like us to look into drop us a comment, it’s not like we’ve got basketball to watch instead.
]]>https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/the-all-time-spurs-team/feed/8David-Robinson-Tim-DuncannerdnumbersJohnny-Mooremanu_ginobilirodman-laimbeer-physicalDavid-Robinson-Tim-DuncanDavid-Robinson-Tim-DuncanGeorge-Gervin-Magic-Johnsonartis-gilmore_display_imageSome Good Looking Links
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/16/some-good-looking-links/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/16/some-good-looking-links/#commentsWed, 16 Nov 2011 20:02:31 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6957Continue reading →]]>Here at the Wages of Wins our analysts’ opinions are highly valued. Our resident General Manager and expert Sports Economist David Berri has been answering questions about the lockout and beauty all over the web.
Dan Hamernash has discussed how beauty gets you paid. It turns out this is especially true for NFL quarterbacks! (Dave doesn’t appear in person but his name is very prominently displayed at the 1:26 mark)
Dave also appeared on NPR to compare the NBA to the European Union of all things. Yes the lockout has forced us there!
Patrick Minton backs up Dave’s claim that the owners decision to crush the players is bad backed up by behavioral research.
]]>https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/16/some-good-looking-links/feed/4David Berri BaseballnerdnumbersWho were the real Playoff MVPs of 1995?
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/who-were-the-real-playoff-mvps-of-1995/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/who-were-the-real-playoff-mvps-of-1995/#commentsWed, 16 Nov 2011 06:05:13 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6944Continue reading →]]>With the lockout in full swing our analysts have been antsy. We’re happy to answer fan requests for historical fact checking*. Today’s request comes via a Tweet from Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index:
@NerdNumbers You have your assignment RT @NBAHistory: Announcer Bob Neal: “Horace Grant is the MVP for the Magic in this series thus far.” @NBATV NOW (Orl/Chi, Gm 6, ’95 EC Semis)
The 1995 playoffs were pretty crazy. The Orlando Magic took down the Bulls despite Michael Jordan returning. The Houston Rockets shocked the world and won it all despite being a lowly sixth seed. Two surprising facts came from these two series.
Horace Grant was the MVP of the Magic-Bulls Series
Don't look back, they might be gaining!
In a series with Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal, it’s surprising to realize the best player on the court was indeed Horace Grant. Here was the breakdown in terms of Wins:
Horace Grant (Orlando Magic) 251 Minutes, 0.293 WP48, 1.53 Wins Produced
Bob Neal was speaking the truth. Horace Grant was better (just barely) than Shaq, and together Shaq and Horace rant circles around Scottie and Michael. Of course Horace and Shaq’s great play may have come from playing a team lacking bigs. Against the Rockets they crumbled when faced with Hakeem’s Finals MVP performance. . . or did they? That brings us to surprise fact number two.
Clyde Drexler was the real finals MVP in 1995
Well at least they both got a trophy.
We can maybe give Hakeem some credit for slowing down Shaq in the finals. That said, Clyde’s performance was inspired. Here’s how the finals went down:
Horace Grant(Orlando Magic) 168 Minutes, 0.084 WP48, 0.30 Wins Produced
Sadly Horace Grant’s greatness disapeared in the finals. But the story wasn’t Hakeem outplaying the bigs of Orlando; the real story was how Clyde Drexler and Robert Horry destroyed the Magic from the wings.
With no NBA in front of us for the foreseeable future, it is fun to go back to the past. Let us know if you have any weird stories you want us to look into and — provided we have time and there are no developments with the lockout — maybe we’ll look into it.
-Dre
* Don’t worry Mark, I haven’t forgotten about the Spurs, they’re on deck.
]]>https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/who-were-the-real-playoff-mvps-of-1995/feed/3Horace-Grant-Michael-JordannerdnumbersHorace-Grant-Michael-JordanHakeem-ClydeNBA Owners have no hope of solving the NBA’s money problems
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/nba-owners-have-no-hope-of-solving-the-nbas-money-problems/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/nba-owners-have-no-hope-of-solving-the-nbas-money-problems/#commentsTue, 15 Nov 2011 15:16:23 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6932Continue reading →]]>We’ve been reviewing the numbers about the lockout for a while here at the Wages of Wins. The owners insist on acting as if owning an NBA team is a business and not a luxury good or political move to achieve other gains. But when we look at the NBA as a business, we can see the owners are terrible at running it as such. Let’s start with just some simple math:
Profits = Revenue - Costs
Cutting Costs
The owners are claiming their profits are negative and that means that either their revenue is too low or their costs are too high. The owners have decided to focus on costs and there is a serious problem with how they’ve done that. First let’s review some of what we’ve gone over:
From the same article, other costs have been going up uncontrollably.
The best scapegoats have been jet fuel and stadium employees, but these are weak excuses at best.
So the owners are “losing money” and they are trying to make up for it by cutting costs. The problem is that the costs they are addressing don’t seem to solve the problem. In fact, if trends continue, Arturo speculates that even in the ideal case the owners’ cost cutting solution will land us in the middle of another lockout in 2020…assuming that there will be NBA basketball being played by then.
Increasing Revenue
If cutting costs won’t solve the issue, then surely raising revenues will? Let’s run that one down too:
Despite the owners’ best attempts at failure, the NBA appears to be a success. This is in spite of several bad business practices, including hosting a team in a city like Indianapolis, which wouldn’t be profitable even in the best case scenario. It goes without saying that the NBA has opportunities to increase revenue, yet none seem to be under consideration.
Summing Up
The owners are locking the NBA players out because their profits are too low (their claim is that they are taking a loss). Using the most simple math, a good business person would either cut the bad costs or raise revenue. Instead of pursuing these two options, the owners are trying to cut their stable costs. Instead of moving teams to better markets, the NBA wants to talk about contraction or revenue sharing. So despite the hours upon hours of talk and the back and forth, the owners haven’t even addressed the issues that led them to shut the league down. As a matter of fact, the odds of there being a season this year are looking quite low. I’ll end with a quote by the late Albert Einstein:
The thinking it took to get us into this mess is not the same thinking that is going to get us out of it.
Unfortunately for the fans and the players, NBA owners seem to be stuck in their thinking with no end in sight.
-Dre
]]>https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/nba-owners-have-no-hope-of-solving-the-nbas-money-problems/feed/13michael-jordan-bobcatsnerdnumbersMore on the “NCAA Cartel”
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/more-on-the-ncaa-cartel/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/more-on-the-ncaa-cartel/#respondMon, 14 Nov 2011 05:58:38 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6919Continue reading →]]>
Today, in an odd coincidence, I stumbled upon one of the most complete articles I have ever read on the subject. The Shame of College Sports, written by Taylor Branch, covers the majority of the problems with the NCAA all in one article, including:
the early history of the NCAA
the myth of amateurism
why “student athletes” should be paid
scholarship issues
academic issues
ridiculous examples of college “scandals”, including the case of A. J. Green
And when I say ‘complete’, I mean it. This article is over 14 000 words — almost 29 single-spaced pages. It’ll take you a while to get through this baby, but it’s well worth it if you are interested in the NCAA, sports, or human rights issues.
My favourite quote from the piece can be found near the top. In 2001, when Sonny Vaccaro was asked why universities should be an advertising medium for the shoe industry, he replied:
“They shouldn’t, sir. You sold your souls, and you’re going to continue selling them. You can be very moral and righteous in asking me that question, sir, but there’s not one of you in this room that’s going to turn down any of our money. You’re going to take it. I can only offer it.”
Taylor Branch was actually against paying student athletes before he wrote the article, and in the course of writing the article he changed his mind. Because once you know enough, there is no way you can be against a radical restructuring of the entire NCAA system.
– Devin
]]>
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/more-on-the-ncaa-cartel/feed/0edobannondevindignamedobannonA Free Market for College Athletes
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/12/a-free-market-for-college-athletes/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/12/a-free-market-for-college-athletes/#commentsSat, 12 Nov 2011 15:01:18 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6915Continue reading →]]>My latest for the Huffington Post — What Sports Illustrated Didn’t Tell You About Paying College Athletes – is obviously a response to a recent article from Sports Illustrated. In the article I advocate a free market for college athletes.
Last August, Robert McCormick and Robert Tollison offered another alternative. In Subversion of the Academy by the NCAA, these two economists noted that the problem in college sports is that the coaches and administrators participate in a free (although quite distorted) market while the labor is treated as amateurs. If one doesn’t like letting the players participate in a free market, why not have everyone go back to being amateurs? In other words, let’s return college sports to what it was before people realized money could be made.
Whether one wishes to see a completely free market for everyone or everyone be treated like the players (i.e. everyone is an amateur), it does seem clear that having one institution for the players and another for the coaches seems to be a big part of the problem. And until that disconnect is resolved, so-called “scandels” will continue to be a part of college sports.
– DJ
]]>https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/12/a-free-market-for-college-athletes/feed/1dberriThe Best Nuggets Team of All Time
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/the-best-nuggets-team-of-all-time/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/the-best-nuggets-team-of-all-time/#commentsFri, 11 Nov 2011 07:01:45 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6900Continue reading →]]>I decided to put together my all-time Denver Nuggets dream team. I picked the best Nuggets based on their top three complete seasons with the team (very similar to what James did for the top 25 players in their prime) and chose the best available player at each position. Enjoy!
Starting PG – Fat Lever
Best Seasons – 1987, 1988 and 1990
Playing Time – 8982 Minutes
Wins Produced – 71.1
WP48 – 0.381
Back in the 1980s the Nuggets were a perrenial playoff team and almost a contender. Fat Lever was a huge part of that and in fact his stint with the Nuggets is one of the greatest of all time. He ended his time with the Nuggets with a great season before leaving and declining in Dallas.
Starting SG – T.R. Dunn
Best Seasons – 1982, 1983, 1984
Playing Time – 7864 Minutes
Wins Produced – 41.3
WP48 – 0.252
Another member of the late great 1980s Nuggets makes the list. Sadly his prime just missed Fat Lever’s time in the spotlight. He is a misleading player for the two guard spot. While he was an efficient shooter during his peak years, his real skill came from the fact that he pulled down almost 8.0 boards a game!
Starting SF – Alex English
Starting SF – Alex English
Best Seasons – 1981, 1982, 1983
Playing Time – 9096 Minutes Played
Wins Produced – 34.2
WP48 – 0.180
No surprise here. Alex English was another great member from the run and gun Nuggets of the 80s and helped the Nuggets get as close as they would ever come to a finals. Alex English is remembered next to Melo as one of the greatest scoring threats the Nuggets ever had. Unlike Melo it was actually true with English.
Starting PF – Marcus Camby
Best Seasons – 2004, 2007, 2008
Playing Time – 7291 Minutes
Wins Produced – 49.6
Wp48 – 0.327
While his assigned position is C I can’t see why the Nuggets can’t two tower the front court. After all it has worked for getting Houston, San Antonio and Los Angeles to the finals. Marcus Camby is an amazing defensive threat and his numbers from his 2008 season make him a key member of this team.
Starting C – Dikembe Mutombo
Best Seasons – 1993,1994,1995
Playing Time – 8982
Wins Produced – 57.0
WP48 – 0.305
Oh what might have been if Dikembe stuck around! He was a monster defensive pressence and a star right from the start of his rookie season. He gave the Nuggets five great years before leaving for greener pastures. Paired next to Marcus Camby the opposing team is guaranteed to never get a rebound and be blocked 20 times a night.
Sixth Man – Andre Miller
Best Seasons –
Playing Time – 8630 Minutes
Wins Produced – 32.6
WP48 – 0.181
Melo is often given the credit for the Nuggets return to the playoffs in 2004. The truth is Miller paired with Camby is the real reason the Nuggets returned to their winning ways. Miller was a great member of the Nuggets and not given his due. He is a great final addition to my all Nuggets team.
This was fun and I may do this for other teams if I get bored as the lockout drags on. Hope you enjoyed it and use the comments if you have votes for specific teams.
-Dre
]]>https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/the-best-nuggets-team-of-all-time/feed/3DikembenerdnumbersFat-LeverTR-DunnAlex-EnglishMarcus-CambyDikembeAndre-MillerThe Bottom Line on the NBA Finances Part 2: The BRI Strikes Back
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/09/the-bottom-line-on-the-nba-finances-part-2-the-bri-strikes-back/
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2011/11/09/the-bottom-line-on-the-nba-finances-part-2-the-bri-strikes-back/#commentsWed, 09 Nov 2011 16:59:27 +0000https://wagesofwins.net/?p=6876Continue reading →]]>Arturo Galletti is the Co-editor and Director of Analytics for the Wages of Wins Network. He is an Electrical Engineer with General Electric on the lovely isle of Puerto Rico, where he keeps his production lines running by day and night (and weekends) and works on sport analysis with his free time.
In Part 1, I used all available public sources to break down the finances of every NBA Team (check it out for the full explanation)
The truth of the matter is that the bottom five teams come out as losers for their owners on the bottom line. For the most part this is is a function of location (7 of the bottom 10 are in my list of franchises in overextended markets), which again is not the player’s fault even though their being asked to pay for it.
Let’s talk new deals.
The owners wanted a 47/53% BRI split in their favor. That looks like so:
Weird, the league makes money as whole here, but 17 teams lose money on their tax returns.
Let’s try the current proposal, the proposed 50% split:
Huh. I still get 19 teams in the red. Something must be wrong; why in the world would the owners propose something that costs them money? Oh wait, I only used the Tax Return Numbers!
If I go by league claims the numbers make no sense. Add in all the other benefits to the equation and everything suddenly does. A 50/50 split sees 29 teams in the black.
The one question left on my mind is: how would this table look like at the players’ proposed 51/49 BRI split?
That still leaves 29 of 30 teams in the black. Add in some relocation and some revenue sharing and you are done (but this also is not up to the players). Relocation, I’ve already explained. Revenue sharing is a tougher cookie, which I’ll get to tomorrow.
-Arturo
Disclaimer: I do not have access to the NBA’s books. Everything in this article is put together from public statements or logical inferences. I do not claim to have this perfectly right. However, I do feel like I am in the ballpark. The sources I used are listed, please update me if there is a better location to get my data.