Center for Economic
Research & Forecasting
The Cal Lutheran Center for Economic Research & Forecasting is a nationally-recognized economic forecasting center with deep roots in Ventura County, building a bridge between national and local impact.
National Recognition.
CERF is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, the NABE Economic Outlook Survey and the Fannie Mae (formerly Case-Shiller) Home Price Expectations Survey. CERF was the recipient of a 2024 Fannie Mae Crystal Ball Award. CERF’s 2-year ahead U.S. home price forecast was the single most accurate among more than 100 forecasting houses.
Narrative Changing Research.
Industry-leading economic and forecasting expertise are only as valuable as the impact that they produce. From building the state’s first SGMA water markets, to leading an ambitious COVID-19 antibody study, to providing a factual view of the rapidly growing contribution of U.S. Latinos, CERF is committed to applying our knowledge and skills with a careful eye on impact.
Regional Expertise.
CERF has deep roots and unmatched expertise in the Ventura County regional economy. CERF seeks to be a solutions-oriented organization, providing world-class economic forecasts, identifying policies that make a difference in the economic life of our region, and working with diverse stakeholders to implement practical solutions to major economic challenges.
NATIONAL RECOGNITION
CERF Crystal Ball
CERF’s goal is to provide objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state of the art forecasting tools reveal. In this effort, CERF sees its role as one of calling balls and strikes, rather than advocating for a preferred outcome. CERF’s approach has been validated by a number of national forecasting awards, including 2nd place in the 2016 NABE Outlook Award and 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2024 Crystal Ball Awards for the Fannie Mae (formerly Case-Shiller) Home Price Expectations Survey.
NARRATIVE-CHANGING RESEARCH
Latino GDP Project
The Latino GDP Project is an ambitious, multi-disciplinary research initiative which provides a factual view of the large and rapidly growing economic contribution of U.S. Latinos. Having been covered in more than 800 separate features across print, electronic and broadcast media, the Latino GDP Project is actively changing the narrative about the impact of a vitally important demographic cohort.
REGIONAL EXPERTISE
Ventura County’s Economy
For years, CERF has provided in-depth analysis of the Ventura County’s economic and demographic performance, with special attention paid to the role of local and regional policies in shaping growth. Thanks to CERF’s careful, data-rich analysis, the region is engaged in a transformative discussion about the future of the County.
THE ECONOMIST | Markets in an Age of Anxiety: Caps on Groundwater use create new markets in California
Read moreCLU | Cal Lutheran economists win prestigious national forecasting award for fourth time in six years
Read moreRegeneraciónMX: Latinos Reach Record High in U.S. Population and Workforce, UCLA Study Finds
Read moreCNBC | Latinas contributed $1.3 trillion to U.S. economy. That number could be even bigger.
Read moreATLANTA BUSINESS CHRONICLE | ‘We are part of the economic plan for the future’: Latino GDP growth in Atlanta
Read moreHistory of CERF
The Center for Economic Research & Forecasting (CERF) was founded in 2009 by economists Bill Watkins and Dan Hamilton, who ran the Economic Forecast Project at U.C. Santa Barbara until moving to Cal Lutheran. From the time of its founding, CERF has received national recognition for forecast accuracy, winning a number of prestigious forecasting awards. CERF not only engages in thoughtful policy analysis but actively seeks to shape policy at the regional, state and national levels. CERF initiatives have been the subject of more than a thousand features across print, electronic, and broadcast media, including the Associated Press, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, CNBC, Bloomberg, and more.
