Ad Orientem

Today, Vice-President Vance is meeting with representatives of Denmark about Greenland. That's not encouraging as Vance has gone out of his way to assume to role of Donald Trump's attack dog. Some thoughts on where we are and the implications of Trump's revival of great power imperialism...

An armed attack by the United States on Denmark (which Greenland is a part of) would have earthquake level ramifications. It would instantly turn the United States into an international pariah, on the same level as Russia. It would effect not just trade and commerce, but also security. Europe would be forced to treat the US as an unfriendly, or even hostile foreign power. It would shatter the transatlantic relationship that has existed since World War II. NATO in its current form would effectively be dead. Most likely the Europeans would cease sharing intelligence with us. It is entirely possible that they would politely tell us to remove our troops from their soil. Beyond Europe, it is likely that pretty much the entire democratic world would look at America as just another predatory great power, not to be trusted, and against which  they need to guard themselves. 

For the moment, we are still living in a one superpower world. This is in large part because, unlike Russia and China, the US has a global military presence. We have bases all over the world that allow us to project power where and when we need to. This is almost entirely because the countries that are hosting our bases like and trust us. This is something unique in history. In the past, great powers with overseas bases almost always were colonial empires. The locals had no real choice about hosting their overlords' troops or ships. As far as I am aware, America is the first global superpower whose power is based on goodwill and a deep trust in our honor and benevolent intentions. The loss of that trust and good will would be catastrophic for global peace and security. But it would also have a devastating effect on our own ability to project military power. Imagine what would happen if the Europeans decide to evict us from the massive bases we operate there. That's the logistical nexus for our capabilities to operate in the Middle East, Africa and of course Europe. The Sixth Fleet is able to dominate the Mediterranean because of the bases we have in Italy and Spain and friendly port facilities in France, Greece and Turkey.  What if Japan, S. Korea and Australia suddenly started rethinking their relationship with us? Yes, we have Hawaii and Guam, but they can't replace the loss of of forward deployed troops and ships near potential hot spots. Guam can't absorb even a fraction of what we have in Japan and S. Korea. China would be able to swallow Taiwan at its leisure. The strategically vital base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean could also be lost. 

In the course of a single year, Donald Trump has taken 80 years worth of good will that this country has accumulated, put it all in a big pile, pored gasoline on it and struck a match. It now remains to be seen if he is actually going to throw the match. All in the name of his ego and desire to put his name on a new American Empire.