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NBA 2025-26 Case Study —
Portland Trail Blazers

How do the Blazers get better?

After a promising 6-5 start, with Jrue Holiday lending a veteran savvy to a young roster, the Blazers have gone 6-12 since then with Jrue sidelined. Putting the Blazers through an 8-Game Physicality & Playing Hard Case Study, some things are clear:

1–7 in Physicality (net wins on a game by game basis)
0–8 in Playing Hard: — flashes of effort, and four strong individual performers, but need more from the full rotation.
Quiet positives: foundational pieces in place, and very fixable player development opportunities abound.

» Full 8-game Blazers Physicality & Playing Hard Report

Dec 14: New Orleans vs Chicago
Physicality/Playing Hard Game Report

Karlo Matkovic played the entire fourth quarter and led all players in RHP36 (and net Physicality Wins) to spark the Pelicans

→ NOP vs CHI Game Report (New Orleans perspective)

→ NOP vs CHI Game Report (Chicago perspective)

The Secret Behind OKC’s Defense: Microwins

Devin Booker wasn’t kidding: “The secret is out. They speed you up.”
We charted thousands of physicality and playing-hard microwins across a series of Thunder games — revealing exactly why opponents are suffocating under OKC’s pressure.

→ Full OKC Microwins Report

NBA 2025-26 Case Study —
New Orleans Pelicans

Why the Pelicans Are Losing — 5 Coaching Factors (9-Game Case Study)

After an 0-6 start, with Zion listed as out for the next 7-10 days, and Willie Green under pressure, it felt like the right time to put the Pelicans under the Roland 5 Coaching Factors microscope. I tracked nine straight games, logging every physical play, effort play, decision, make/miss and whistle.

In that 2–7 stretch the data tells a very clear story:

0–9 at the rim (-53 Physicality wins) — opponents own the restricted area every night.
Decision-Making: 2–7 (-152 wins) — young guards and non-Zion lineups gift too many easy possessions.
Playing Hard: 4–5 (-51 wins) — flashes of effort, but losing overall and especially on the offensive movement energy plays.
Quiet positives: four strong Physicality sub-categories and very encouraging early signs from rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears.

Games in the Study:

* Borrego as interim HC

» Full 9-game Pelicans 5 Coaching Factors Report

Can you really measure heart, hustle, and toughness?
The Roland 5 Coaching Factors tracking system aims to do exactly that: Physicality, Playing Hard, Decision Making, Shotmaking, and Referee Effects. Across many games from the 2024–25 season and playoffs the numbers have been highly predictive of who wins:

Winning the “Playing Hard” effort count won the game about 85% of the time.
The better “Decision Making” team has been winning at roughly 80%.
More Physicality Wins has meant a win around 75% of the time.

Roland Five Coaching Factors: EUROBASKET

Often you hear it said that you can’t measure heart, hustle, or toughness.
The Roland 5 Coaching Factors tracking system aims to prove otherwise — breaking every game down into five key areas: Physicality, Playing Hard, Decision Making, Shotmaking, and Referee Effects.

Germany 88, Turkey 83 (F.Wagner 23 RHP Score, Sengun 19)
Greece 92, Finland 89 (Giannis 56, Papanikolaou 24)

Turkey 94, Greece 68 (Sengun 30, Osman 25)
Germany 98, Finland 86 (Schroder 30, Jantunen 27)

Greece 87, Lithuania 76 (Giannis 38, Valanciunas 24)
Turkey 91, Poland 77 (Larkin 26, Sengun 24)
Germany 99, Slovenia 91 (Theis 36, Doncic 29)
Finland 93, Georgia 79 (Jantunen 28, Bitadze 20)

In these eight games, the team winning the "Decision Making" is 8-0, the "Playing Hard" winner is 7-1. The better Shotmaking team is 6-1 (one tie), the Physicality winner is 6-2, and it is also 6-2 for the Referee Effects winner.

Is Eurobasket more physical than the NBA? Too small a sample to tell, but by one simple measure — Falls — the answer is yes (so far). There have been 48.6 Falls per 48 minutes in these Eurobasket games, compared to 39.3 falls per 48 minutes in the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

Top Player Performances: (single game)
— Physicality Net Wins: Giannis +27, Theis +15
— Playing Hard Wins: Schroder 28, Giannis 25
— Decision Making: Schroder +17, Schroder +17
— Shotmaking: Osmani +9, Osman +8
— Referee Effects: Giannis +5, Kostas Antetokounmpo +5

Raw Physicality Wins — Giannis 48, Sengun 34
Ref Argues — Doncic 10, Sengun 7
Knockdowns — Giannis 12, Theis 7
Falls — Schroder 10, Giannis 9

The Roland Five Coaching Factors:
Quantifying Effort, Physicality, and Decision-Making in the NBA

“What’s Possible” – Single-Game Highs Seen So Far:

Factor	Regular Season	Playoffs
Physicality Wins	Sengun 46	Giannis 46 (vs IND, Gm 5)
Physicality Net Wins	M.Williams +27	LeBron +22 (vs MIN, Gm 4)
Playing Hard Wins	LaMelo 28	Hart 25 (vs DET, Gm 4)
"20/20"	Adebayo +20 Phys. net wins, 20 PH wins (vs ATL, Play-In)

Shout-out to LaMelo Ball who also has the highest Decision Making game seen so far at +21 net wins -- if he stays healthy (a big IF) can Charlotte surprise in '25-26 against the low expectations?

And in case you are wondering, Nikola Jokic has the second highest playoff raw Physicality Wins we've seen at 45 (vs OKC, game 5), while Jimmy Butler III had a huge +21 net wins game (vs MEM in the play-in). Second highest playoff Playing Hard wins? That was also Josh Hart !

Sample Game Reports:

Milwaukee at Indiana (Giannis 46 Phys. Wins)
Lakers/Timberwolves (LeBron +22 Net Wins)
New York at Detroit (Hart 25 PH Wins)
Miami at Atlanta (Bam 20/20)
Houston at Dallas (Sengun 46 Phys. Wins)
Charlotte at Utah (Mark Williams +27 Net Wins)
Phoenix at Charlotte (LaMelo 28 PH Wins)

"ROLAND PHYSICALITY RATINGS"

Revolutionary tracking of what EVERYONE is talking about -- the PHYSICALITY in the NBA Playoff games. Tracking over forty types of contact, aggression, and resilience to produce groundbreaking new stats and ratings!

PACERS/THUNDER NBA Finals Report
A series that sadly ended with a crushing injury that left us with a lot of "what ifs" -- but congratulations to the Thunder on an amazing season. What can we learn from the Physicality/Playing Hard numbers?

Quick Overview

Oklahoma City won the physicality on a game by game basis 4-3. They also took the "playing hard energy" wins by the same 4-3 margin.

The team with the better Physicality score was 5-2, while the team with the most "Playing Hard Wins" was 7-0.

Shai led all players with 226 Physicality Wins, followed by Siakam (164), Turner (140), Holmgren (134) and Jalen Williams (132). Siakam led in Net Wins with +33. Hartenstein led in Net Wins per 36 min.

Siakam was the top "playing hard energy plays" leader with 63 PH Wins, followed by Caruso (55), Holmgren (52), Haliburton (47), and Nembhard (43).

Siakam dominated Jalen Williams Head-to-Head (+19 wins), while Shai was +20 net wins against the five IND starters (only losing H2H to Siakam).

Minnesota/LA Lakers Series Notes
Yes the T'Wolves took it 4-1, but the games were closer than that suggests, and one player stood out on the Physicality front (and no it wasn't Gobert, Rudy's dominant game 5 performance notwithstanding)

Player Physicality Stats

			Per 36 Minute stats
Player	Wins	Net Wins	RPR	Wins	L2+	Net Wins
LeBron James	140	+66	63.3	24.7	6.4	+11.6
Rudy Gobert	110	+22	65.7	27.7	5.0	+5.5
Anthony Edwards	119	+15	51.2	20.9	3.7	+2.6
Mike Conley	43	+4	29.2	12.9	0.6	+1.2
Luka Doncic	151	+6	60.4	26.1	2.4	+1.0
Julius Randle	111	+5	52.6	21.1	6.3	+1.0

NBA Physicality: Now vs Then
To try and understand how the game may have changed through the years we recently charted twenty playoff games from the 1990's for the same falls and knockdowns data we compiled for the complete 2024 playoffs...

2024 NBA Playoffs "Falls & Knockdowns"
Our game charting team has collectively watched all the playoff games, recording such novel data points as Player Falls and Knockdowns, along with relevant context and nuance. A clean, relatively objective physicality rating can be constructed with Falls+Knockdowns per 36 Minutes...

Most Physical	Least Physical
12.3 - Daniel Gafford 12.0 - Lu Dort 11.9 - Joel Embiid 11.8 - Devin Booker 11.4 - Kyle Lowry 11.1 - Jalen Suggs 10.7 - Aaron Nesmith 9.7 - Khris Middleton 9.6 - Tyrese Maxey 8.9 - Isaiah Hartenstein	1.8 - D'Angelo Russell 1.8 - Tobias Harris 1.9 - Sam Hauser 2.0 - Rui Hachimura 2.9 - Cason Wallace 3.0 - Tim Hardaway Jr. 3.0 - Aaron Gordon 3.0 - Austin Reaves 3.0 - Christian Braun 3.1 - Ben Sheppard

See the full stats for every player, the top ten leaderboards in a variety of categories, and more in this groundbreaking series. Which player gets a foul call the most when he falls? the answer is...

“I thought their physicality and their pressure stood out, especially early,” Oklahoma City head coach Mark Daigneault said. “They definitely threw the first punch of the game, and that had a lot to do with it. Schematically, they were a little different, but not a ton. They were more forceful on the offensive end and defensive end of the floor, and that was a tough combination for us.

Chet Holmgren on the physicality these playoffs: "It feels like how we used to play at the park. There's no playing for a foul out there. You gotta play for a bucket. If you played to get a foul at the park, someone would just take the ball and go home."

"I thought the game was reffed very physically," Adelman says. "I thought we joined the party late." DA says when you join the party late, refs see the physicality as reactionary"

"This is how we've played all year," Magic guard Anthony Black said about the physicality of the series vs. Boston. "We like to touch people on defense, we're into the ball, we pick up. That's just the style of basketball we play."

Jaylen Brown said a fight might break out because the games have been so physical. He said if the Magic want to do that, they can fight it out for the right to get to the second round.

Luka Doncic: "Going into Minnesota will be a war. ... We can't panic"

"Toughness and physicality is the staple of the city and the staple of the team. It's something that we need to embrace." Scotty Pippen Jr.

"If you look around the playoffs right now, it's super physical," Finch told reporters. "To me, they've gone way too far on the physicality."

The Warriors made it a point not to complain about Houston's physicality postgame...understanding that this series will need to be won in a rugged environment when it restarts in San Francisco. "

TJ McConnell: "he's like, 'You're going to pick everyone up full court, and that's what you're going to hang your hat on.' And it's something that I've created an identity about."

Kevon Looney on physicality: "It's the playoffs, I'm gonna grab and push until they call it'"

I didn't see the flagrant," Mosley said, "Two guys were going for the block and I think it was just the fall [that] was probably what set it off more than anything."

Aaron Gordon was pretty critical of the whistle. Says the Thunder are fouling every possession and refs are often calling the second foul

"They do a lot of fouling, shoving, holding, pushing and tackling Rudy," Finch said after practice Wednesday. "That's clear. We sent a bunch of those clips into the league. In fact, I'm not sure I know another player in the league with Rudy's pedigree that is allowed to be physically beaten on the way he is. And so we've got to address that one way or another."

"I was upset the first 10 minutes of the game. It was just like Houston all over again," Kerr said of Game 1. "They were bear-hugging Steph (Curry), and they could have called six fouls."

At 82games we create innovative and often unique NBA data sets, through our own collective game chating, some 'computer vision' efforts, and existing resources.

Stat of the Day:
Which teams in the four major sports have the longest run of playoff futility? (Defined as years since a top 8 finish, eg winning a first round matchup or being a top seed with bye in MLB/NFL)

Futility Run	Sport	Team
24 yrs	Football	Miami
22 yrs	Football	LV Raiders
21 yrs	Basketball	Charlotte
21 yrs	Basketball	Sacramento
18 yrs	Hockey	Buffalo
17 yrs	Basketball	Detroit
15 yrs	Basketball	Orlando
14 yrs	Football	NY Jets
14 yrs	Football	Chicago
13 yrs	Baseball	Cincinnati
12 yrs	Hockey	Detroit

...Detroit and Orlando might be viewed as having a punchers chance to get off this list in the 2026 playoffs.

24-25 Regular Season
"Old School Stats"
Atlanta Hawks
Boston Celtics
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dallas Mavericks
Denver Nuggets
Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic
Philadelphia 76ers
Phoenix Suns
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
Toronto Raptors
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards

Player Ratings
Clutch Stats
Team Won-Lost Pages

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